Senate News & Analysis

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. 
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe McSally has captured a…

Stop Calling 2018 ‘The Year Of The Woman’

by Leah Askarinam October 15, 2018 · 11:30 AM EDT

Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House…

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 14, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.

From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and…

2018 Election Preview: GOP Bump or Trend?

October 12, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

With less than a month before Nov. 6, the fundamentals of these midterm elections are set and broadly good news for Democrats. But with dozens of close races around the country, a shift of just a couple points across the board is the…

Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 28, 2018)

September 28, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. The most recent NBC/Marist Poll is the latest in a series of September surveys that finds Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema narrowly leading GOP Rep. Martha McSally. Since a Sept. 5 OH Predictive Insights poll found the Republican congresswoman ahead by 3 points,…

Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 26, 2018 · 10:42 AM EDT

After two years of campaigning in the latest most consequential election of our lifetimes, election night could be a huge letdown. The disappointment is not about which party prevails Nov. 6, but the reality that a combination of close races and West Coast contests could prevent enough races from being…

What 39,000 Words in 15 Profiles Didn’t Tell You About Beto O’Rourke

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 21, 2018 · 10:01 AM EDT

I’m pretty sure three new profiles of Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke have been published in the time it took me to write this lede. Yet the only thing more remarkable than the sheer volume of stories written about the congressman is that none of them put his 2012 House victory…

2018 Election Preview: It’s All Over But the Campaigning

September 14, 2018 · 3:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After nearly two years of campaigning, 52 days is still plenty of time for the midterm elections to develop.

Most of the races are finally fully engaged and the rest of September will be the proving ground for the effectiveness of GOP attack…

National Notes (September 14, 2018)

September 14, 2018 · 3:29 PM EDT

Republicans’ Slumping Surveys. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating dipped across the board, which should be disconcerting for Republicans on the ballot this fall. Fundamentally, midterm elections are most often a referendum on the president. And if voters are dissatisfied with the president’s performance, they can’t vote against him, so…

Senate Report Shorts (September 14, 2018)

September 14, 2018 · 3:28 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. GOP Gov. Doug Ducey appointed former Sen. Jon Kyl to late-Sen. John McCain’s vacant seat. The appointment could last until the end of the term in 2020, but Kyl left open the possibility of leaving the seat before then, after this Congress…