Alabama.
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt) Open; Barry Moore, R, running in 1st District. Biden 56%. National Democratic strategists are keeping an eye on this redrawn seat, and it was no accident that nominee Shomari Figures was given a coveted DNC speaking slot in August,…
Indiana. Open; Eric Holcomb (R) term-limited. Both the Democratic and Republican Governors Associations are investing in this race: $600,00 from the DGA to Democrat Jennifer McCormick and $750,000 from the RGA to Sen. Mike Braun. The Braun campaign suffered two missteps last week, airing a campaign…
Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel…
North Carolina’s one remaining swing district looks headed for a photo finish at the presidential level, but Democrats in down-ballot races begin the fall with advantages, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
In the Tar Heel State’s 1st District,…
I used to be a debate skeptic. I was skeptical that debates changed the trajectory of elections. But after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in one of the most consequential debates in history on June 27 and considering the race between Trump and Vice President…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Ticket-splitting gets a lot of attention but it’s increasingly rare and could come to define the 2024 elections.
Looking at survey data in more than 50 competitive Senate and House races around the country, the trend is alignment of the presidential race…
Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Whether it’s statewide surveys or snapshots in competitive House districts, it’s clear that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has the edge over GOP former local news anchor/2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. It looked like Lake had a better…
Alaska.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%. Republican Nick Begich struggled to fundraise for much of the primary, and now outside groups are coming in to bolster him with positive advertising ahead of the general election. The NRCC is also airing negative ads against…
