Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 14, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.

From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary…

2018 Election Preview: GOP Bump or Trend?

October 12, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

With less than a month before Nov. 6, the fundamentals of these midterm elections are set and broadly good news for Democrats. But with dozens of close races around the country, a shift of just a couple points across the board is the difference between a…

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 12, 2018)

October 12, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema enjoyed a narrow but consistent advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally in polls before and after the late August primary. But some more recent public and private data show that edge might be gone. Sinema had an…

House Report Shorts (Oct. 12, 2018)

October 12, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 2nd District (Open; Martha McSally, R, running for Senate). Clinton 49.6%. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has high negatives from previous runs for office and a competitive primary, but it’s still rough going for Republican Lea Marquez Peterson to win this open seat that Hillary Clinton…

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (Oct. 12, 2018)

October 12, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Arizona. Doug Ducey (R), elected 2014 (53%). The governor and his GOP allies are enjoying a tremendous spending advantage on television in the final weeks of the campaign — $13 million to $500,000. It’s tough to see how Democrat David Garcia is going to overcome that dynamic in a state President…

Candidate Conversation - Wendy Rogers (R)

October 12, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District -- Rating: Lean Democratic

Interview Date: Sept. 14, 2018

Date of Birth: July 24, 1954; Fort Knox, Ky.

Education: Michigan State Univ. (1976); Univ. of Alabama (M.S.W. 1977); Cal State-San Bernardino (Master’s, 1986)

Elected Office: None; 2016 1st District candidate; 2014…

Don’t Sweat the Election Night Surprises

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2018 · 11:06 AM EDT

What will be the biggest surprise on election night?

It’s a common and valid question, but I’m always a little amused by it.

If I were able to identify a completely unexpected or astonishing event that would happen a month from now, then that event shouldn’t be considered completely unexpected or…