Florida Senate: Not Swing, But Still Battleground

June 4, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

After cycles of GOP success, Florida has shed its swing state status. But the Sunshine State is still competitive and should still be considered a battleground, particularly when the majority in the Senate hinges on a single seat.  

Six years ago, Marco…

Biden’s Job Rating and the 2022 Midterm Elections

by Ryan Matsumoto June 4, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

Joe Biden has only been president for a few months, but pundits and prognosticators alike are already looking at what the tea leaves may suggest about the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats currently maintain the slimmest of majorities; House Republicans need to gain just five seats to flip the…

New Mexico 1 Special: Status Quo Results

June 4, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

Democrat Melanie Stansbury prevailed in Tuesday’s special election, keeping New Mexico’s 1st District in Democratic hands after Rep. Deb Haaland joined the Biden Administration as Interior Secretary. 

Considering Joe Biden’s big victory over President Donald Trump in the Albuquerque-anchored…

Candidate Conversation: Gillian Battino (D)

June 4, 2021 · 2:27 PM EDT

Wisconsin Senate — Rating: Battleground

Interview Date: May 25, 2021 (Zoom)

Date of Birth: March 30, 1970; Athens, Ohio

Education: John Carroll Univ. (1992); The Ohio State College of Medicine (1996)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Battino starts as an underdog in…

House Report Shorts (June 4, 2021): Florida & Ohio

by Jacob Rubashkin June 4, 2021 · 2:26 PM EDT

Florida’s 10th District
With Democratic Rep. Val Demings preparing to run for the Senate, the field to succeed her has started to take shape. Former 9th judicial district state attorney Aramis Ayala, who made national headlines several years ago when she announced she would not seek the death…

Could Supreme Court Supercharge Midterms With Abortion Ruling?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 3, 2021 · 8:58 AM EDT

If redistricting hadn’t complicated the midterm elections enough, a Supreme Court decision on one of the country’s most polarizing issues has the potential to supercharge the fight for the House and Senate.

Last month, the Supreme Court announced it would hear a challenge to a new Mississippi law

New Mexico 1 Special: Tale of Two Races

by Jacob Rubashkin May 21, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

After a net loss of 11 seats in 2020, House Democrats left themselves very little room for error in 2022. And with such a narrow majority, Democrats have to win special elections to maintain control of their own seats even before the midterm elections in order to maintain a working majority on the…

Ohio Senate: Grand Re-Opening

by Jacob Rubashkin May 21, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s surprise decision not to seek a third term in Ohio in 2022 has set off a raucous primary among Republicans, and finally pushed a long-hesitant Democrat into his first statewide race.

The Buckeye State has drifted rightward over the past decade — Democrats have won just one…

Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 21, 2021 · 9:00 AM EDT

Democrats aren’t lamenting getting locked out of the special election runoff earlier this month in a Texas district they targeted previously.

But did the party miss an opportunity to bounce back from a surprising 11-seat loss in the 2020 elections? Looking back a decade ago at the special…

Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2021 · 9:00 AM EDT

Failure, disappointment and embarrassment. Those three feelings should come to mind for Republicans if they don’t win the House majority in 2022. 

Democrats have their narrowest majority in more than a generation, and Republicans have redistricting and history on their side in the midterm…