Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens
October 17, 2024 · 11:00 AM EDT
Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.
But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.
But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.
In an Oct. 8-10 poll of 414 likely voters, Crane and Nez are tied in the House race, while Arizona’s two statewide races diverge widely.
The Lay of the Land
Roughly half of the state by land area, the sparsely populated 2nd District stretches from the Four Corners through Coconino and Yavapai counties in the west, south to Graham County, and even wraps around Phoenix to pick up pieces of Pinal and Maricopa counties.
It is a diverse district geographically and includes 12 Native American reservations, the Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, and Phoenix exurbs. The population is 55 percent non-Hispanic white, 20 percent Hispanic, and 20 percent Native American.
Politically, the 2nd leans Republican. Crane won his first election by 8 points over O’Halleran in 2022. Donald Trump carried the 2nd by 10 points in 2016 (51-41 percent) and 8 points in 2020 (54-46 percent).
The seat has an Inside Elections Baseline score of R+8.6, meaning a typical Republican would be expected to win by a 53.6-45 percent margin.
The House Race
Crane and Nez are tied in the poll, with each receiving 42 percent of the vote. Another 15 percent of voters are undecided.
As is typical for a freshman congressman, Crane’s name ID is far from universal, with 32 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 28 percent viewing him unfavorably. Nez is less well-known, with just 29 percent viewing him favorably and 11 percent viewing him unfavorably.
While Crane spent heavily to trounce a challenger in the GOP primary over the summer, Nez has run the more aggressive general election campaign so far. He outraised Crane in the third quarter by $1 million, pulling in $2.6 million to the congressman’s $1.6 million, and has spent $1.4 million on paid media since September, including running broadcast TV ads in the pricey Phoenix media market. Crane has spent $270,000 on cable, satellite, and digital ads, but has not aired broadcast TV ads.
Neither candidate is likely to receive help from the national parties at any scale.
While the race is currently tied, the fundamentals of the district still favor Republicans, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.
The Presidential Race
Voters in the 2nd District look likely to toss their support to Trump by a similar margin for a third cycle in a row.
The former president led Vice President Kamala Harris by 9 points, 52-43 percent, in the survey. His lead decreased only marginally, to 50-43 percent, when voters were presented with Libertarian Chase Oliver (1 percent) and the Green Party’s Jill Stein (1 percent).
Trump remains popular in the district, with 51 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 47 percent viewing him unfavorably. His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is also well-liked, with 49 percent expressing a favorable view and 42 percent viewing him unfavorably.
Harris’s image is underwater at 44 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is less well-known, with 44 percent viewing him favorably and 43 percent unfavorably.
The Senate Race
Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Democrats in the poll was the strength of their Senate candidate, Rep. Ruben Gallego. The Phoenix congressman looks firmly in control in the race against Republican Kari Lake, the former news anchor who reinvented herself as a Trump acolyte.
Gallego led Lake by 5 points, 48-43 percent, in the poll. If achieved, that margin would represent by far the best performance for a statewide Democrat in the district since at least 2016. In 2022, Sen. Mark Kelly lost the 2nd District, 51-47 percent, even as he won statewide by 5 points.
Voters in the district are split on their opinion of Gallego, with 42 percent viewing him favorably compared to 41 percent unfavorably. They are more sure of their feelings toward Lake, who is seen favorably by 43 percent of the district but unfavorably by 54 percent.
Abortion Rights
Arizona voters will also vote on whether to codify the right to an abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution. Abortion has been a hot topic in Arizona since the state Supreme Court reinstated a territorial law that would have outlawed almost all instances of the procedure — the state legislature later implemented a 15-week ban that superseded the 1854 law.
The ballot measure looks likely to pass. In the 2nd District, 58 percent of voters expressed support while just 25 percent said they would vote against it.
This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 10-12 and surveyed registered voters via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 414 likely voters, determined via screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected 2024 electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 4.8% for likely voters. Error due to non-response, survey design and other factors is not captured by sampling error calculations. Full crosstabs are available here.
*Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.