Governor News & Analysis

Report Shorts (April 7, 2023)

April 7, 2023 · 1:28 PM EDT

Arizona's 1st District. The field of Democrats attempting to unseat GOP Rep. David Schweikert is shaping up. Jevin Hodge, who came less than 1 point away from defeating Schweikert last cycle, announced that he won’t run in 2024. Since then, Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah and  former state party chairman…

How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 3, 2023 · 1:39 PM EDT

Even if legal problems don’t hinder former President Donald Trump’s political comeback attempt, they could hurt other Republican candidates on the ballot in 2024. 

Republicans won’t have to reckon with the electoral ramifications of Trump’s indictment for now. But much of the short-term analysis (or more specifically, the overall Republican…

Report Shorts (March 24, 2023)

March 24, 2023 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona Senate. Kyrsten Sinema’s campaign website has stopped sending donors to Democratic platform ActBlue. Instead, the independent now directs donors to rival payment processor Anedot, which is used primarily by Republican candidates and independents. Sinema hasn’t been kicked off ActBlue (yet), and her page on that platform is still live.…

Report Shorts (February 17, 2023)

February 17, 2023 · 2:28 PM EST

California Senate. In one of the least surprising moves of the cycle, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein announced she will not seek re-election. Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff were already in the race, and they are now joined by Rep. Barbara Lee. There’s a reasonable chance that two Democrats…

2023 Gubernatorial Overview: Three’s Company

January 20, 2023 · 2:30 PM EST

There’s no such thing as an off-year in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, which will all elect governors this year. 

The trio of states offers a little bit of everything: both a Republican and Democratic governor running for re-election, as well as an open seat. A majority of the action will…

2024 Gubernatorial Overview (January 20, 2023): Focus on the Few

January 20, 2023 · 2:29 PM EST

By Erin Covey & Jacob Rubashkin

Democrats had a better-than-expected 2022 — and not just in Washington, D.C. Though the party was defending seats won in the 2018 “Blue Wave” election, including in GOP-leaning and swing states, they managed to increase their number of governors nationwide.

But fresh off their…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Governor Elections

by Bradley Wascher January 10, 2023 · 10:15 AM EST

For the first time since 1986, the president’s party netted gubernatorial seats in a midterm election, as Democrats gained three new governorships in 2022 and Republicans flipped only one. Although it wasn’t much of a surprise that Massachusetts and Maryland moved into the Democrats’ column, Arizona (another Democratic flip) and…

Baseline Update: Which States Shifted the Most After 2022

by Bradley Wascher December 2, 2022 · 2:29 PM EST

With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric. 

Baseline captures a state or…

2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 28 2022)

November 28, 2022 · 11:30 AM EST

Updated as of Nov. 28, 2022 at 11:30am ET

By Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales

Elections are humbling, and this time it’s Republicans’ turn for some soul searching.

Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the…

2022 Election Results: What Happened in Gubernatorial Races?

by Jacob Rubashkin November 18, 2022 · 2:27 PM EST

The least surprising results of the cycle might have been in gubernatorial races, with each party winning all the races they were favored to win. But similar to the House and the Senate, Democrats won a disproportionate number of toss-up races, including Kansas, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Arizona, while Republicans won…