House News & Analysis

Iowa 3: Des Moines Melee

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

The presidential circus left town, but the most consequential political fight in Des Moines is just getting started.

Iowa’s 3rd District is one of the most evenly divided seats in the country, and has been for the better part of two decades. The Des Moines-based district has switched hands repeatedly…

2022 Vote Above Replacement: House Challengers Running Again in 2024

by Bradley Wascher January 26, 2024 · 2:27 PM EST

There’s no shame in finishing second, because Congress is filled with losers.

In 2020, Republican Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna failed to unseat Democratic then-Rep. Charlie Crist in Florida’s 13th District. Two years later, Luna, now without worry of Crist, who was running for governor, found herself…

Report Shorts (Jan. 26, 2024)

January 26, 2024 · 2:26 PM EST

Louisiana’s 6th District. A redrawn congressional map is the result of a legal challenge under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and is poised to deliver an additional seat to Democrats. The Supreme Court’s ruling in a similar case in Alabama last year set off a domino effect throughout…

Louisiana Redistricting: Democrats +1, Graves 0

by Jacob Rubashkin January 22, 2024 · 4:00 PM EST

House Democrats look set to pick up a seat in Louisiana following a court-ordered redistricting process, at the expense of a once-powerful ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

While not final, the map passed by the Louisiana state legislature and supported by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry last week would create…

Podcast Episode 14: Iowa Caucus Results, Delegate Counting w/ Leah Askarinam

January 18, 2024 · 11:34 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Leah Askarinam of 538 and the Associated Press discuss the Iowa caucus results and the intricacies of counting delegates in the presidential nominating process.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential…

New York 3 Special: Nassau County Clash

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

The antics and alleged crimes of George Santos have put a spotlight on New York’s 3rd District for over a year. But the lights are brighter than ever now that Santos has been expelled and the 3rd District is up for grabs in the first competitive House special election of…

Ohio 6 Special: GOP Fight in Formerly Blue Territory

by Jacob Rubashkin January 11, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Serving in Congress is so bad that one member would rather be a college president than finish out the remainder of his term. 

Republican Bill Johnson will exit Congress on Jan. 21 to take a job as president of Youngstown State University, triggering a special election in the Ohio River…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 House Elections

by Bradley Wascher January 10, 2024 · 10:50 AM EST

Judging candidate performance is often a subjective and imprecise game.

Sure, you can clearly tell when a diamond is a diamond or a dud is a dud, but outside of these obvious outliers, the labels “strong” and “weak” have different definitions depending on who you ask. Particularly for House races,…

Podcast Episode 13: New York 3 Special, Iowa Caucus w/ Marianne LeVine

January 5, 2024 · 9:17 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Marianne LeVine of the Washington Post discuss the special election to replace George Santos in New York’s 3rd District and the upcoming Republican caucuses in Iowa, with a side of movie reviews. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts…

New Year, New House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

Sometimes overshadowed by the fights for the White House and Senate, the House majority is on the line in 2024 as well. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, changes in individual races can have a considerable impact on the fight for control. 

Looking at the races individually shows Republicans still…