General Election Stage (Mostly) Set in Eight More States

by Leah Askarinam June 6, 2018 · 12:20 PM EDT

The Republican majority was at risk before Tuesday’s primaries and it’s vulnerable after the primaries. But a fresh crop of results in eight states narrows the crowded fields of candidates. Some results are not official, but this is where things are most likely headed.


Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Democrats got their top choice to face Ivey in November, but it’s still an uphill climb for the Tuscaloosa Mayor, especially after Ivey won her GOP primary with a majority against two challengers.

2nd District. Rep. Martha Roby (R) vs. former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright in the July 17 GOP runoff. Rating: Solid Republican. Roby has defeated Bright in a general election before, but now she has to prove she can do the same in a primary. If Bright, who lost the 2010 race as a Democratic incumbent but is now a Republican, does manage to make it to the general election, the race against Democratic nominee/minister Tabitha Isner could be worth watching.



Governor. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. This race is important because Republicans were concerned about not having a statewide candidate to drive turnout down ballot. But unless something drastic happens in the next few months, Newsom will be California’s next governor.

Senate. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Kevin De León (D). Rating: Solid Democratic. With about 60 percent of precincts reporting, Feinstein led the field with 44 percent, while De León received just 11 percent. Feinstein would ideally like to be over the 50-percent mark, but it’s still hard to imagine De León overtaking her in November.  

4th District. Rep. Tom McClintock (R) vs. Jessica Morse (D). Rating: Likely Republican. The best-funded Democratic nominee, Jessica Morse, won the party nomination Tuesday. Morse, who worked for Barack Obama’s Department of Defense and State Department, enters the general election with almost as much money in the bank as the Republican incumbent. Morse had $648,000 on May 16th compared to McClintock’s $698,000.  

10th District. Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. Josh Harder (D) or Ted Howze (R) Rating: Tilt Republican. In an unexpected turn of events, this district is the one we’re watching for Democrats to get locked out of. Democrat Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is currently in second place, but veterinarian Ted Howze, a Republican, isn’t too far behind.  

21st District. Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. T.J. Cox (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate had a competitive primary opponent, so no surprises here.

22nd District. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) vs. Andrew Janz (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Janz, whose fundraising benefited from national attention on the congressman, easily defeated the other Democratic candidates.

25th District. Rep. Steve Knight (R) vs. Katie Hill (D) or Bryan Caforio (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. It’s not yet clear who the Democratic nominee will be, but either Caforio or Hill would have the resources to wage a credible campaign.

39th District. Young Kim (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D). Rating: Toss-up. After one of last night’s messier Democratic primaries, the DCCC got its favorite candidate into the top two. And while Republicans didn’t block Democrats from the ballot, their most competitive general election candidate won the most votes. (The Cook Political report projected that Cisneros would progress to the November ballot. At the time of publication, Cisneros had 19 percent while the Republican in third place had 14 percent.)

45th District. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter. Rating: Lean Republican. GOP strategists believe that of the Orange County Republicans, Walters goes into the general election with the strongest footing. UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter looks like she’ll be the one to test that theory.

48th District. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Harley Rouda (D) or Hans Keirstead (D) or Scott Baugh (R). Rating: Tilt Republican. Rohrabacher will definitely be on the ballot, but it’s still unclear whom he’ll be facing in November. It’s looking less and less likely that fellow Republican Scott Baugh will be on the ballot--he’s in fourth place--but Kierstead and Rouda had less than 100 votes separating them with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

49th District. Diane Harkey (R) vs. Mike Levin (D). Rating: Toss-up. In an anti-climactic finish, it looks like a Democrat will face a Republican in Rep. Darrell Issa’s open seat after all. Our friend Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected that Levin, an environmental attorney, will progress to the general election.

50th District. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Josh Butner, a veteran who was endorsed by Rep. Seth Moulton, lost the nomination to Campa-Najjar, who was endorsed by the state party. Butner was the favorite early in the cycle, but Campa-Najjar has proven to be a good fundraiser, while Butner ran an imperfect campaign.



Governor. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Fred Hubbell (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Fred Hubbell avoided a runoff and can self-fund, already putting $3 million into his campaign.

1st District. Rep. Rod Blum (R) vs. Abby Finkenauer (D). Rating: Toss-up. No surprises in the outcome here, but Finkenauer’s 67 percent in a four-candidate field was remarkable considering her campaign got off to a sluggish start. The Democrat who came in second place received less than 20 percent.

3rd District. Rep. David Young (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Earlier this cycle, it seemed likely that the Democratic race would go to convention given the crowded field. But after Theresa Greenfield failed to gather enough valid signatures, the path for digital design firm owner Cindy Axne became a bit clearer.



Senate. Roger Wicker (R) vs. David Baria (D) or Howard Sherman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Wicker had no trouble getting through his primary, while two Democrats--state rep. David Baria and venture capitalist Howard Sherman--will progress to a runoff.

3rd District. Republicans Michael Guest and Whit Hughes will compete for the GOP nomination in a runoff on June 26, which will likely determine the congressman in a district President Trump carried with 61 percent. Rating: Solid Republican.



Senate. Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Rosendale enters the election with an endorsement from Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz, and will likely get a boost from President Trump.

At-Large District. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Kathleen Williams (D). Rating: Likely Republican. As Roll Call’s Simone Pathe noted, Williams, a former state representative, entered the Democratic primary late, lagged in fundraising compared to her primary opponents, and enters the general election with just $90,000 compared to the congressman’s $1.1 .million.


New Jersey

Senate. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Given Menendez’s lackluster performance against a Democratic challenger with basically no campaign operation, we can infer that if Menendez remains the Democratic nominee through November, he will likely win the general election but it’s not because voters are in love with him.

2nd District. Jeff Van Drew (D) vs. Seth Grossman (R).  Rating: Tilt Democratic. Van Drew managed to win the nomination, and comes in with a major advantage in fundraising over Grossman--Van Drew raised $632,000 through May 16 while Grossman raised just $23,000.

3rd District. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) vs. Andy Kim (D). Rating: Likely Republican. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent last night. No surprises here.

5th District. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Steve Lonegan (R). Rating: Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Steve Lonegan, while an imperfect candidate, had a path to victory--he carried the district in his 2013 Senate race and had already put $1 million in personal money into his campaign. But Lonegan lost on Tuesday, and the GOP path to victory is less clear with John McCann, an attorney with $46,000 in the bank as of May 16.

7th District. Rep. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Tom Malinowski (D). Rating: Tilt Republican. Tom Malinowski, who appears on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list, won the Democratic nomination, as expected.  

11th District. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Jay Webber (R). Rating: Tilt Democratic. Webber is the second-best funded candidate in this race, but still trails Sherrill, who had $1.8 million on May 16. Sherrill initially planned to run against the incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, providing extra momentum for the Democratic nominee. But Frelinghuysen is not seeking re-election, and Webber had $226,000.


New Mexico

Governor. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Rating: Lean Democratic. The Democratic congressman from the 1st District will face off against the Republican congressman from the 2nd District for Republican Gov. Susana Martinez’s open seat. We might see a similar Member vs. Member dynamic for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake’s open seat in Arizona, if GOP Rep. Martha McSally wins the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

Senate. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Mick Rich (R). Rating: Solid Democratic. Rich, a contracting company owner, ran unopposed to face Heinrich in November.

1st District. Deb Haaland (D) vs. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) Rating: Solid Democratic. Haaland’s victory in last night’s primary means that she’ll likely be the first Native American congresswoman. She faced a crowded primary and emerged with more than 40 percent.

2nd District. Yvette Harrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Rating: Lean Republican. Democrats have been hoping Torres-Small could gain traction in an open seat. But, while Harrell trails in cash on hand, she’s not too far behind in fundraising in a district that tends to favor Republicans.


South Dakota

Governor. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D). Rating: Solid Republican. Any Republican has the upper hand in this race, but some Democrats believe that Billie Sutton has the kind of profile that could make him a credible competitor.

At-Large District. Dusty Johnson (R) vs. Tim Bjorkman (D). Rating: Solid Republican. The primary was the main event for this seat, considering past Republican performance here. Dusty Johnson will likely be elected to Congress this November.