Montana 1 Poll: Tranel and Tester on the Edge
September 19, 2024 · 2:12 PM EDT
One of 2022’s most surprising House races looks headed for a similarly hard-fought finish this year.
Montana’s Ryan Zinke — a onetime rising star with a military background, two statewide victories, and a stint as Interior Secretary — was nearly denied in his attempt to return to Congress from Big Sky County by attorney and former Olympian Monica Tranel.
Now Tranel is back for a rematch, and while the race isn’t flying under the radar as it did two years ago, it looks just as competitive, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
In the Sept. 11-14 survey, fielded entirely after the presidential debate, Zinke led Tranel by 4 points.
The poll also tested the blockbuster Senate race, and found warning signs for embattled Sen. Jon Tester as he fights to keep his seat — and a Democratic majority.
The Lay of the Land
Montana’s 1st District spans the western third of Big Sky Country, from the Idaho border east to just outside the capital of Helena. Missoula is the largest city, and the biggest source of Democratic votes. The district also includes fast-growing Bozeman.
The 1st is predominantly white (86 percent), with a sizable Native American population (7 percent) — the district is home to two reservations.
Politically, the district is the more competitive of Montana’s two seats and while it leans Republican, Democrats have carried it in statewide contests.
In 2020, Biden would have lost the district by about 7 points, 52-45 percent, but in the Senate race, Gov. Steve Bullock lost it by a narrower 2 points, 51-49 percent. In 2018, Tester would have carried the 1st district by 10 points, 54-44 percent. In 2016, Trump would have carried the seat by 12 points, 52-40 percent, but Bullock would have won it by 9 points in the gubernatorial contest.
The House Race
In 2022, Tranel held Zinke to a closer-than-expected 3-point win, 50-47 percent, with a Libertarian taking 4 percent.
The 2024 contest looks strikingly similar. In the poll, Zinke led Tranel by 4 points, 47-43 percent, with Libertarian Dennis Hayes pulling another 3 percent.
The race remains competitive because of Zinke’s mixed image. The former Navy SEAL resigned from Trump’s cabinet in the midst of more than dozen ethics investigations and has long dealt with the perception that he spends too little time in Montana. Voters were split on how they see him, with 45 percent viewing him favorably and 46 perfect viewing him unfavorably.
Tranel is slightly less well known but was seen favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent.
Hayes, the Libertarian, is virtually unknown, with just 16 percent of voters expressing an opinion of him.
But that could change, because boosting Hayes is a key component of Democrats’ strategy to win this district. In publicly available messaging materials, House Democrats’ campaign arm signaled to outside allies that certain Republicans in the district should be targeted with ads introducing Hayes as a “conservative outsider who is focused on draining the corrupt Washington swamp, building Trump’s border wall, eliminating the government overreach of the Bureau of Land Management.”
In a head-to-head ballot against Tranel, Zinke led by a slightly greater margin, 49-44 percent.
The Senate Race
In the Senate race, Tester led GOP opponent Tim Sheehy by 1 point, 45-44 percent. Libertarian Sid Daoud took 3 points, and Green Party nominee Robert Barb took 1 percent.
A one-point victory in the 1st is not sufficient for Tester to win statewide, given how overwhelmingly Republican the 2nd District is. In 2018, Tester won statewide by 3 points while carrying the 1st by 10 percent, so this poll suggests he faces a mid-single digit deficit statewide.
A recent survey from FabrizioWard (R)/David Binder Research (D) sponsored by the AARP found Tester trailing Sheehy statewide by 6 points.
Arguably, the increased concentration of Democratic voting power in the western half of the state means that Tester may need an even stronger performance in the 1st District than he has enjoyed in the past. In his first election in 2006 he would have carried the 1st by 5 points, and in 2012 he would have carried it by 7 points, even as his statewide margin remained steady.
Tester’s image was breakeven in the poll, with 49 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 47 percent unfavorably, while Sheehy is moderately unpopular, with 43 percent seeing him favorably and 50 percent seeing him unfavorably.
The Democrat did capture support from 5 percent of Trump voters, but in a state where Trump will win by double digits, that level of crossover voting would be insufficient.
The Presidential Race
Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 points, 49-43 percent, with Libertarian Chase Oliver at 2 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent. In a head-to-head contest, Trump led Harris by 7 points, 51-44 percent.
Harris was viewed favorably by 44 percent of voters and unfavorably by 53 percent, while Trump was viewed favorably by 51 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president, and Ohio Sen J.D. Vance, the GOP nominee for vice president, are both liked and disliked by equal shares of voters.
Eighty-five percent of voters said they watched all or some of the debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 , and a clear majority of those who watched — 54 percent — said Harris performed better, compared to 37 percent who said Trump performed better.
Odds and Ends
GOP Gov. Greg Gianforte had the largest lead of the Republicans tested. He outpaced Democratic opponent Ryan Busse, a former firearms manufacturer, by 10 points, 47-37 percent. Gianforte is not popular in the district — his image rating is a middling 43 percent favorable/46 percent unfavorable — but Busse is still relatively unknown, with just 31 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 24 percent viewing him unfavorably.
While Gianforte has consolidated 90 percent of Trump voters, Busse carried just 82 percent of Harris voters.
One bright spot for Democrats and progressive in the 1st District is the broad support for a state constitutional amendment codifying abortion access prior to fetal viability: 54 percent of voters said they will vote for that ballot measure, while just 31 percent expressed opposition. Even 23 percent of Republicans expressed support for the initiative.
This poll was conducted via text-to-online and live caller. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from September 11-14, 2024. We contacted a random sample of registered voters in Montana’s 1st district using the voter file and determined likely voters via screening questions. The sample size was 432 likely general election voters. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, county, education, and party to reflect the projected 2024 electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. The margin of error was +/- 4.7%. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Full crosstabs are available here.