New York Rep. Michael Grimm’s arrest reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper.
In May 2006, the FBI raided Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson’s offices and home on suspicion of corruption. I assumed that since agents found $90,000 cash wrapped in aluminum…
With the Senate majority hanging in the balance, the Republican primary in North Carolina has gained national attention. But a handful of House primaries in the Tar Heel State are also important including open seats in safe districts, a long-time incumbent facing a challenge, and a former American Idol…
Republicans are retiring from competitive congressional districts but this might be the wrong cycle for Democrats to take advantage of the opportunities.
The latest Member to announce his retirement is GOP Rep. Tom Petri of Wisconsin’s 6th District. President Barack Obama won the district narrowly in 2008, making…
Stop the presses!
The Charleston Gazette, West Virginia’s largest newspaper, has endorsed both Democratic Senate hopeful Natalie Tennant and Rep. Nick J. Rahall II, a Democrat in the 3rd District.
Tennant will face Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., in November in an open-seat contest, while Rahall will…
No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this year’s elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They aren’t.
But foreign policy could have an indirect yet significant impact on the…
It’s time to pay more attention to television ad reservations; they have become another critical way party strategists communicate without coordinating under campaign finance laws.
Not too many cycles ago, political reporters rightly handled television ad reservations loosely and delicately as strategists from both parties used them to…
This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.
In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated get-out-the-vote operations, how can a handicapper know…
So far, there is precious little evidence that Democrats have changed the trajectory of the 2014 midterm elections, reinforcing our earlier assessment that Democrats have little or no chance of taking back the House in November.
President Barack Obama’s weak job approval numbers, questions about Democratic enthusiasm and…
Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat). June 3 primary, July 15 runoff.
AL 6 (Open; Bachus, R). Among those running are state Sen. Scott Beason, state Rep. Paul DeMarco, businessman Will Brooke and former Alabama Policy Institute president Gary Palmer. From Beason’s website: “As Establishment Republicans in Washington are…
Iowa (2R, 2D). June 3 primary. If no candidate receives 35 percent in the primary, party conventions pick the nominees.
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). The Democratic field includes former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon, former state Sen. Swati Dandekar and state…
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