My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.
The change results from three…
University of Illinois professor George Gollin forced one of Democrats’ top recruits to spend a few hundred thousand dollars to win the primary. Now Gollin is popping up in other House races hundreds of miles away and potentially causing problems for more top recruits.
Earlier this year, Gollin…
Apparently Democrats are determined to challenge the old political axiom, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.” in Florida’s 13th District.
Just a couple weeks ago, Democratic strategists tried to pull off some ballot jiu jitsu by keeping the Democratic field clear until after the filing deadline so that…
Michigan has a little bit of everything this cycle- - a competitive gubernatorial race, an open seat race for the U.S. Senate, Republican congressional primaries between insiders and outsiders, crowded Democratic primaries in safe seats and a couple of Republican incumbents who are vulnerable in the general election.
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Republican Members of Congress are an endangered species in the Northeast, but Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud’s exit from Maine’s 2nd District gives Republicans an opportunity to win back the seat for the first time in 20 years.
For an open seat, the fields are relatively clear with two…
Florida’s 19th District. Businessman Curt Clawson won the special GOP primary and is the prohibitive favorite in the June special general election. The seat was open after GOP Rep. Trey Radel’s resignation.
Georgia Governor. Gov. Nathan Deal’s mishandling of the state’s winter storm response threw a bit of…
The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.
Observers see what they want to see in the results,…
Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?
It’s a simple question, but it isn’t as easy to answer as you might think. Part of the problem is deciding which candidates and races are part of…
Rep. Mike Simpson looks like he’ll survive the epic establishment vs. anti-establishment struggle in the GOP primary in Idaho’s 2nd District. But if last cycle is any indication, the incumbents that lose primaries this year will be in low-profile races rather than high profile battles between outside groups.
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The filing deadline in Florida has passed and Democrats are banking on a potentially attractive candidate, but an even more unconventional process, to take another shot at the 13th District.
Democrats recruited Colonel Ed Jany to run in the seat now being held by Republican Rep. David Jolly…
