House News & Analysis

Obama’s New Political Reality Is Bad News for Dems in 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg May 16, 2013 · 9:37 AM EDT

Forget background checks and gun control, divisions within the GOP on immigration, and Republican intransigence on negotiating a budget deal with the president. The current triple play of Benghazi, the IRS and now the Justice Department’s seizure of journalists’ phone records has the potential to be a political game…

The NRA is Missing an Opportunity to Control Gun Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2013 · 3:04 PM EDT

The National Rifle Association has an opportunity to claim the mantle of public support in the gun control debate, and it would cost the group only a few thousand dollars in a meaningless race in Missouri to do it.

State House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith (R) is…

House Strategists Differ on Candidate Timing

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2013 · 12:01 PM EDT

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel began calling prospective Democratic candidates for 2014 on Election Night 2012, but many Republican strategists have been encouraging their potential recruits to keep their powder dry.

House strategists on both sides of the aisle are implementing two very different strategies this…

Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

by Stuart Rothenberg May 8, 2013 · 12:06 PM EDT

It’s looking as if we may see more than a dozen House race rematches in 2014. While some of them are likely to have the same outcomes as in 2012, others could easily flip party control. Here is my initial list of potential rematch flips, with the first contests…

Georgia 12: Barrow Declines Senate Run, But House Democrats Rejoice

May 7, 2013 · 10:00 PM EDT

Rep. John Barrow (D) announced on Tuesday that he would not run for the U.S. Senate in Georgia and he will likely seek re-election to his House seat. His decision dramatically improved Democratic chances of holding the 12th District, which leans Republican, by the numbers. Without him, it would…

South Carolina 1: Sanford Wins, Seat Returns to Safe GOP for 2014

May 7, 2013 · 9:57 PM EDT

Former Gov. Mark Sanford disappointed both parties by winning the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District and keeping the seat in Republican hands.

It looks like national GOP strategists played the special election just right for once, and it wasn’t because they held the seat. With the…

South Carolina 1 Special a Photo Finish?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 6, 2013 · 11:08 PM EDT

With the special election in South Carolina just one day away, both Republicans and Democrats are unsure of the outcome.

Former Palmetto State Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican, began with a narrow advantage over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, but even Republicans pulling for Sanford believe that he has…

History Lessons and the 2014 Midterms

by Stuart Rothenberg May 6, 2013 · 9:18 AM EDT

Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics.com joins the growing chorus of political handicappers who have been arguing that we aren’t likely to see a partisan wave next cycle. Trende’s analysis, which also addresses the “six-year itch,” is spot on (as it usually is).

There is no evidence right now…

Report Shorts (May 3, 2013)

May 3, 2013 · 1:55 PM EDT

California 25. Jon Fleischman of California’s FlashReport wrote about the apparent imminent retirement of Rep. Buck McKeon (R). Some Republicans in Washington believe 2012 26th District nominee Tony Strickland could move over and run in an open seat, but McKeon’s office denied the rumor and Fleischman noted a half-dozen…

South Carolina 1: Parties Prepare to Spin Colbert Busch Win

by Stuart Rothenberg May 3, 2013 · 12:44 PM EDT

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the party’s super PAC, the House Majority PAC, have spent well over half a million dollars in an effort to win a special election in South Carolina’s 1st District, a reliably Republican seat that is competitive only because Republicans nominated controversial former Gov.…