House News & Analysis

The Biggest Mistake of Obama’s Presidency?

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 10, 2013 · 10:01 AM EDT

President Barack Obama could have saved himself a lot of headaches, and potentially his presidential legacy, if he had done one thing: cultivated a relationship with Congress.

It doesn’t have anything to do with courting GOP leadership or caving to tea party conservatives. Multiple congressional Democrats believe the…

3 Local Races That Could Affect the Fight for the House

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 6, 2013 · 1:49 PM EDT

Local races rarely have an impact on statewide or congressional elections, but a trio of local races this year could have an effect on three competitive House districts next year.

The most immediate example is the special election for mayor of San Diego.

Republican former City Councilman…

Are There Really Fewer Competitive House Districts Than Ever Before?

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2013 · 9:08 PM EDT

According to conventional wisdom, there are fewer competitive House races than ever before thanks to partisan gerrymandering. But a closer look at the past 10 elections shows that the 2014 batch of races isn’t far from other non-wave cycles.

There are currently 49 House seats rated as…

10 Things Losing Candidates Say

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 28, 2013 · 9:52 AM EDT

It’s August of an odd-numbered year, but the 2014 cycle is heating up. That means dozens of candidates are visiting us at The Rothenberg Political Report in anticipation of the midterm elections.

Some of them will win, but most will lose. So we’ve started taking notes on some…

Alabama 1 Special: Republican Tide Rolls On

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 23, 2013 · 2:59 PM EDT

With only 50 competitive seats on the House playing field, it’s important to look at primaries on both sides of the aisle that will choose the next member of Congress. And with House Republicans divided into two camps, any GOP primary raises important questions.

GOP Rep. Jo Bonner…

Louisiana 5 Special: Republican Dynasty

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 23, 2013 · 2:58 PM EDT

Rodney Alexander doesn’t do anything with a lot of advance notice.

In 2004, the Democratic congressman from Louisiana switched parties just before the filing deadline to ensure that angry Democrats wouldn’t have enough time to field a candidate against him.

This year, the ink was hardly dry…

A Final Comment on Twitter and Election Forecasting

by Stuart Rothenberg August 19, 2013 · 10:14 AM EDT

I shouldn’t be disappointed with MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” one of the few reasonable political shows not airing on Sunday morning. But the show did a segment with Indiana University sociologist Fabio Rojas, who recently wrote a Washington Post opinion piece on how Twitter can predict an election.

Instead…

Twitter Can’t Yet Predict Elections

by Stuart Rothenberg August 15, 2013 · 10:13 AM EDT

The folks over at the Washington Post must have needed copy desperately for Monday’s opinion page if they were willing to publish a piece titled, “How Twitter can help predict an election.”

In the column, Indiana University Sociologist Fabio Rojas asserts: “Twitter discussions are an unusually good…

Challenger Takes Issue With Congressman’s ‘Brown People’ Comment

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 8, 2013 · 2:13 PM EDT

Is “brown people” an offensive term for Latinos?

Rep. Alan Grayson is no stranger to controversial statements, but it’s unclear whether the Florida Democratic congressman’s mouth has gotten him into trouble once again.

“I think that would be a shame, but what really pushes immigration to the…

Republicans Can’t Win on August Recess

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 8, 2013 · 9:34 AM EDT

In politics, it’s often damned if you do, damned if you don’t, and Republicans and August recess is no different.

Last week, some Democrats criticized Republicans for taking the traditional August break.

“House Republicans just fled the scene of their crime, skipping out on the American people…