House News & Analysis

The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2013 · 9:13 AM EDT

Last week, I discussed the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election. It was a tough call, but clearly came down to two Southern Democrats. This week, the question is who is the House’s most vulnerable incumbent, and the answer is much, much easier.

It’s California Republican Gary G. Miller.

Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

by Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the Cook Political Report.)

New Jobs Numbers Raise Economic — and Political — Questions

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2013 · 10:00 AM EDT

The jobs numbers just reported for March — an increase of only 88,000 jobs — are horrendous, especially coming after February’s strong job surge (236,000 new jobs revised up to 268,000).

Forget the unemployment rate sliding from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent. As The Associated Press noted,…

Utah 4: Matheson v. Love, Round Two

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2013 · 2:30 PM EDT

Rarely does one House race have a national impact, but that is the case in Utah’s 4th District.

In 2012, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love came within 768 votes of knocking off Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and becoming the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress.

Arizona 2: The One That Keeps Getting Away

by Jessica Taylor April 5, 2013 · 2:29 PM EDT

Tucson has been the site of hard-fought congressional contests for the past four cycles. But it was an off-year incident that may have cast the largest pall on politics in southern Arizona -- and ultimately had the biggest effect on the 2012 race.

On January 8, 2011, Rep.…

South Carolina 1 Special: The Punchline’s Over

by Jessica Taylor April 5, 2013 · 2:28 PM EDT

National Republicans accepted the political reality a long time ago that disgraced former Gov. Mark Sanford could well be their nominee in South Carolina’s 1st District special election. With the May 7 election against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch now set, they’re going to have to do something about it…

Report Shorts (April 5, 2013)

April 5, 2013 · 2:27 PM EDT

Florida 2. Sunshine State Democratic scion Gwen Graham announced her bid against sophomore Rep. Steve Southerland (R) this week. A Leon County school district administrator, Graham is the daughter of former Florida governor and senator Bob Graham.  

Georgia Senate. Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) officially announced his campaign,…

South Carolina 1st District Poll: It’s All About Context

by Stuart Rothenberg April 4, 2013 · 4:46 PM EDT

The campaign of Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the Democratic nominee for the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District, released a poll Monday. As with all polls, context matters, so be careful before jumping to conclusions either way.

Conducted for the campaign by Lake Research Partners, the survey shows…

South Carolina 1 Special: Referendum on Sanford or Colbert Busch?

by Jessica Taylor April 2, 2013 · 9:39 PM EDT

Mark Sanford cleared another hurdle Tuesday on his way to political redemption, winning the GOP runoff against former Charleston City councilor Curtis Bostic.

However, the disgraced former South Carolina governor’s greatest test is yet to come against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch on May 7. While the general election…

The Fat Lady Sings on Gun Control, 2013 Edition

by Stuart Rothenberg March 28, 2013 · 3:23 PM EDT

Whether you are a staunch supporter of the National Rifle Association or an enthusiastic backer of the effort by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and California Sen. Dianne Feinstein for stronger gun control laws, it now should be clear who is winning — indeed, who has won —…