Three weeks into the government shutdown, I’m not sure how this standoff ends, but I do know there are multiple reasons for how we got here.
What’s the problem? Democrats and Republicans can’t find a solution because they’re trying to solve two different problems. If you listen carefully, Democrats are…
Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.
Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…
Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).
Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…
With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now.
According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent…
When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.
I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower…
Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation.
Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees.
…Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.
From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and…
The selection of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court will have less of an impact on November’s midterms than you think. Sure, depending how the confirmation process develops, it’s possible the nomination could affect a handful of races, but the most likely scenario will not change the overall trajectory of…
You need to hand it to President Donald Trump, his entire administration and his party. It takes more than a little chutzpah to act in a way that seems callous to the concerns of children. First, it was gun control. Now it is immigration in general, and separating children from…
Former Trump campaign chief executive and White House strategist Steve Bannon recently told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria that the midterm elections will be “an up or down vote” on the president. He also asserted that it’s imperative that Donald Trump nationalize the midterm elections.
“Trump’s second presidential race will be on…
