President News & Analysis

Coming Down to the End of the Line in 2012

by Stuart Rothenberg November 2, 2012 · 10:42 AM EDT

As Election Day approached in 2006, 2008 and 2010, I was reasonably confident about the kind of an election we would have, even if I wasn’t sure about the exact outcome. Four years ago at this time, for example, we all had a pretty good idea who the next…

The Race for the White House Enters Final Stretch

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

With a little more than a week until Election Day, we have moved three states – New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin – out of the Lean Obama category and back into our Toss-up category.

That decision reflects the overall closeness of the presidential contest, as well as our…

Reverting to the Norm: The Race Narrows

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

With less than two weeks to go until the elections, the presidential race continues to revert to the norm, a development that can only worry the president and his top strategists.

States that historically have been competitive in presidential elections or tilted to the GOP are moving in…

The Race that Never Stops Surprising

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

Two weeks ago, Republicans were growing dispirited, even getting desperate.

Presidential nominee Mitt Romney was still on the defensive over his “47 percent” comment, and GOP consultants were worrying about what they acknowledged was some softening of Republican House and Senate poll numbers in swing states.…

Why’d Mitt Romney Take So Long to Move to the Middle?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 8:30 AM EDT

The surprise about Mitt Romney’s recent move to the middle isn’t that it occurred but that it took so long.

It has been standard political fare for presidential hopefuls to play to the party faithful during the fight for the nomination and then move to the middle in…

Race for the White House: Can Romney Mount a Comeback?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 5, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

Two respected polls, conducted by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post, recently showed former Gov. Mitt Romney (R) creeping back into the presidential race, but it was Wednesday’s debate that probably changed the trajectory of the contest.


Over the past few weeks, national polling…

Friday’s Numbers: Does Anybody Still Care?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 5, 2012 · 9:11 AM EDT

A few months ago, I expected this Friday to be a crucial day in the presidential race. After all, it would be the day when September's unemployment and new jobs numbers would be released, right in the heart of the contest.

But now, it's far from clear that…

Don’t Neglect the Twitter Effect on Debates

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2012 · 3:19 PM EDT

Amid all the pregame coverage of the first presidential debate, don’t neglect the Twitter effect. The winner and loser could be decided and the post-game narrative and media coverage could be set before the candidates even leave the stage.

Of course, Twitter launched before the 2008 campaign, but…

Race for the White House Shifts Toward the President

by Stuart Rothenberg September 28, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

We moved six states last week – all of them toward President Obama. Putting Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin into the “Lean Obama” category pushed the president to 278 electoral votes -- eight more than he needs to be re-elected.


Of course, those three states, and five…

Presidential Ratings Change: Advantage Obama

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 4:52 PM EDT

We are moving six states in our presidential race ratings: Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama, and Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Solid Obama. 

Deteriorating state poll numbers for Mitt Romney suggest that these states have moved a few points toward the president, and…