As Election Day approached in 2006, 2008 and 2010, I was reasonably confident about the kind of an election we would have, even if I wasn’t sure about the exact outcome. Four years ago at this time, for example, we all had a pretty good idea who the next…
With a little more than a week until Election Day, we have moved three states – New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin – out of the Lean Obama category and back into our Toss-up category.
That decision reflects the overall closeness of the presidential contest, as well as our…
With less than two weeks to go until the elections, the presidential race continues to revert to the norm, a development that can only worry the president and his top strategists.
States that historically have been competitive in presidential elections or tilted to the GOP are moving in…
Two weeks ago, Republicans were growing dispirited, even getting desperate.
Presidential nominee Mitt Romney was still on the defensive over his “47 percent” comment, and GOP consultants were worrying about what they acknowledged was some softening of Republican House and Senate poll numbers in swing states.…
The surprise about Mitt Romney’s recent move to the middle isn’t that it occurred but that it took so long.
It has been standard political fare for presidential hopefuls to play to the party faithful during the fight for the nomination and then move to the middle in…
Two respected polls, conducted by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post, recently showed former Gov. Mitt Romney (R) creeping back into the presidential race, but it was Wednesday’s debate that probably changed the trajectory of the contest.
Over the past few weeks, national polling…
A few months ago, I expected this Friday to be a crucial day in the presidential race. After all, it would be the day when September's unemployment and new jobs numbers would be released, right in the heart of the contest.
But now, it's far from clear that…
Amid all the pregame coverage of the first presidential debate, don’t neglect the Twitter effect. The winner and loser could be decided and the post-game narrative and media coverage could be set before the candidates even leave the stage.
Of course, Twitter launched before the 2008 campaign, but…
We moved six states last week – all of them toward President Obama. Putting Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin into the “Lean Obama” category pushed the president to 278 electoral votes -- eight more than he needs to be re-elected.
Of course, those three states, and five…
We are moving six states in our presidential race ratings: Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama, and Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Solid Obama.
Deteriorating state poll numbers for Mitt Romney suggest that these states have moved a few points toward the president, and…
