Redistricting News & Analysis

Nevada House: Democrats Could Win Three of Four Seats

November 4, 2011 · 11:53 AM EDT

A court finally drew a map after legislators couldn’tdecide on a compromise and Democrats should be pleased.

Nevada gained a seat during reapportionment and the new lines give Democrats an opportunity to win three of the state’s four seats.

Cong. Mark Amodei (R), who just won a…

Utah House: Matheson’s Tough Decision

November 4, 2011 · 11:52 AM EDT

Republicans passed a new congressional map that puts Democratic Cong. Jim Matheson (D) in jeopardy.

Matheson’s been in Republican districts before but now Republicans are giving him new territory. The Democratic congressman ruled out running for the U.S. Senate, leaving a gubernatorial run, re-election, or retirement as his…

Stu’s Dangerous Dozen: Unsafe House Incumbents

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2011 · 11:22 AM EDT

For years now, I’ve been running lists of vulnerable open seats and incumbents, so there is no reason to wait until all states have completed redistricting. Here are the most vulnerable incumbents who are currently planning on seeking re-election. One caveat: I have excluded incumbents running against incumbents, whether…

Republicans Solidify Ohio with New Map

by Stuart Rothenberg September 13, 2011 · 12:47 PM EDT

Instead of trying to increase their numbers in the state’s Congressional delegation, Oho Republicans have agreed to a plan that could take at least three and potentially four competitive U.S. House seats off the table, possibly solidifying their control of the delegation for the next decade. 

The key…

California Redistricting Shakes Landscape

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2011 · 3:30 PM EDT

Even though California is the largest state in country, political handicappers essentially ignored the Golden State in the fight for the House over the past decade. 

Ten years ago, the congressional map was drawn so effectively to protect incumbents that few seats were competitive and even fewer switched…

Redistricting Success Often a Moving Target

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 14, 2011 · 10:44 AM EDT

While handicappers try to tally Democratic and Republican redistricting wins and losses in midcycle, the reality is that it could be a decade before either party can declare victory. When it comes to redistricting, how and when to define success isn’t always easy.

For now, both parties are…

Illinois Districts: New Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 1, 2011 · 3:00 PM EDT

The Land of Lincoln will host some of the biggest House races this year, which isn’t great news for Republicans since Barack Obama will be on the ballot once again.

Democrats weren’t in charge of drawing new congressional maps in too many states, but they were in Illinois,…

Republicans Try to Even the Score with New North Carolina Lines

by Stuart Rothenberg July 1, 2011 · 12:20 PM EDT

National Republican strategists, still smarting from creative Democratic map-making in Illinois, finally have a reason to smile.

North Carolina Republicans have a new Congressional map that is likely to cost Democrats at least three seats and quite possibly four in 2012.

Republican insiders are particularly proud that…

2012 House Overview (June 20, 2011)

June 20, 2011 · 10:00 PM EDT

The outlook for the House in 2012 continues to look hazy because of the slow pace of redistricting.

Around the country, Republicans are trying to solidify their 2010 gains, while Democrats are hoping that the combination of a presidential election and the Ryan budget proposal’s handling of Medicare…

Redistricting’s Bottom Line Might Surprise You

by Stuart Rothenberg June 15, 2011 · 9:36 AM EDT

Six months ago, before redistricting had even begun, Republicans were optimistic they would gain additional seats, or, as former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie put it, that they would “gain or protect” 15 to 25 seats.

Not surprisingly, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) disagreed,…