Senate News & Analysis

Kentucky Senate Bluegrass Poll: Another Interpretation

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

When asked about the new Bluegrass Poll, which showed Republican Rand Paul’s lead shrinking from 15 points in an early September survey to a mere two points in a new survey, SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve commented, “Whether that is a result of genuine traction for (Conway), second thoughts about…

2010 Senate Overview (September 24, 2010)

September 24, 2010 · 5:20 PM EDT

The road to a gain of at least six Senate seats got a little bit easier for Republicans this week as multiple surveys show Wisconsin moving in the Republicans’ direction. In general, the Midwest is looking like a big, big problem for Democrats up and down the ballot. There…

State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

by Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory…

Handicapper Headache: What About Alaska?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 22, 2010 · 10:05 AM EDT

Can Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was denied renomination by Alaska Republicans, win as a write-in candidate in November? Obviously, it’s a long shot, as is any write-in campaign, but is it impossible?

I start off skeptical, but I’m not sure.

For anyone who doesn’t know about Alaska…

Is This an Anti-Incumbent Year? Not So Far

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 21, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Countless stories and hours of cable television have been filled with analysis describing this year’s elections as tantamount to an anti-incumbent wave.

But as the primaries come to a close, it’s clear that instead of throwing the bums out, voters have let the vast majority of incumbents move…

2010 Senate Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:30 PM EDT

The GOP primary upset in Delaware obviously impacts Republican efforts to gain ten seats and win control of the Senate. But Republicans remain headed for major Senate gains, and GOP prospects in at least two states thought to be extremely competitive, Florida and Ohio, appear improved over the past…

Delaware Proves Sometimes a Win Isn’t a Win

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2010 · 10:00 AM EDT

The pattern is a familiar one.

Purist conservative challengers in GOP primaries start out as asterisks in early polls, but in the final week or two, they surge to victory, as national tea party groups pump money and energy into low-turnout primaries.

For the most part, these…

Delaware Senate race moved to Lean Democrat

by Stuart Rothenberg September 14, 2010 · 9:33 PM EDT

Christine O’Donnell’s upset over Cong Mike Castle in the GOP primary dramatically alters Republican prospects for November in Delaware. Castle had broad appeal, including to independents and even Democratic voters, while O’Donnell’s appeal is limited to tea party conservatives. Lacking an impressive resume and unlikely to garner significant national…

Is Rasmussen Better Than its Reputation?

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 31, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

There isn’t a lot of consensus in Washington, D.C., but party operatives on both sides of the aisle as well as members of the media seem to be united in their distrust of polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports. But with new polling by a Democratic firm in three key…

Debt: One Campaign Issue Parties Are Very Familiar With

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2010 · 2:00 PM EDT

Even with the economy and ballooning national debt at the top of voters’ minds this fall, don’t be surprised when the Republican and Democratic campaign committees dig into the red to help pay for expensive television ads across the country.

Extending a line of credit is a common…