Cong. Martin Heinrich (D) is still the favorite in the race, but as long as Republican Jon Barela raises enough money to be competitive and the current national mood is unchanged, we expect the race in New Mexico’s 1st district to go down to the wire. We’re moving the race from Democrat Favored…
While New York Gov. David Paterson’s (D) performance in office has been widely panned, his timing in three House special elections this cycle has been impeccable.
Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) resigned his 29th district seat more than a month ago, but Paterson still has not acknowledged the vacancy…
I’ve always said that the party campaign committees usually get too much credit for success and too much blame for failure, so I’m certainly not pointing fingers in this column. But if Republicans fall a handful of seats short of taking over the House in the fall midterms, it could be because of…
We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.
Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to…
We’ve all been reminded repeatedly that Democrats face problems this year because of both the normal drop in midterm turnout and the mix of voters in nonpresidential years (See my “Democrats Face Challenges in Key Districts in 2010,” June 4, 2009). But those national problems will be magnified in…
Michigan Cong. Bart Stupak’s (D) retirement creates another open seat opportunity for the Republicans. The 1st District is competitive, but in this political climate, Republicans may have the slight edge. Since the seat has been open for all of a few hours, it will take a few weeks for the…
Democrats now have an accomplishment with the passage of health care reform, but it’s far from clear that it dramatically enhances their prospects for the fall, as some of their officeholders and supporters argue.
Polling still shows the public dissatisfied with the country’s direction and with…
With the proliferation of polling this cycle, political junkies, journalists and party strategists are swimming in a sea of numbers. With each new survey that is released, the party that is ahead touts the results while the party that trails disparages and discounts the pollster. Rinse and…
Doing a little spring cleaning this week, I came across New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s book, Crossroads: The Future of American Politics, written and edited in the wake of Cuomo’s primary loss in the 2002 gubernatorial race.
Since he is the heavy favorite to win the Empire State’s…
In less than a month, we will know whether Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is absolutely committed to running for the Senate this year as a Republican.
Crist, of course, says the matter is closed — that he is in the GOP race to stay. But some observers won’t be convinced until the filing deadline…
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