California Blues: A Bit of a Downer for the Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg June 12, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

That sigh you heard Wednesday morning coming from national Democrats wasn’t the roar of approval and satisfaction that they hoped for. The results are in from California, and the news was surprisingly good for Republicans.

Former and future Rep. Brian Bilbray drew just under 50 percent of the…

Vote Likely to Strain Falwell-McCain Marriage

June 9, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

The recent marriage of two former political foes may already be over. Or at least the relationship got a bit more complicated with Wednesday’s Senate vote on the Marriage Protection Amendment.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) received plenty of attention when he accepted the Rev. Jerry Falwell’s…

California’s 50th: Worst Nightmare or a Bit of Relief for the GOP?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

[Editor's Note: This column was originally published on Monday, before the election.]

Campaign strategists in both parties are holding their breath as the special election in California’s 50th district comes down to the wire. Neither party is expressing confidence in a race that increasingly…

Alaska Governor: Good News for Democrats

June 6, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Two major announcements out of Alaska regarding the gubernatorial race, and both of them help the Democrats’ prospects in November. First, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) announced he would seek reelection to a second term. And second, former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) announced he would seek his third term.

New Print Edition: Senate Overview

June 2, 2006 · 3:01 PM EDT

The new June 2, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

Democrats need a net gain of six seats to get to 51 seats in the next Senate, a daunting task since only 15…

The Jefferson Raid: Are Republicans Blowing Another One?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Whatever you think of the constitutional issues surrounding the FBI raid on the Capitol Hill office of embattled Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.), there is little doubt that, politically, Republicans are blowing another opportunity.

To most Americans, Jefferson appears to have taken a bribe.…

Evidence Grows of Incumbent Vulnerability in House Races

by Stuart Rothenberg May 30, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

While there is plenty of evidence that voters are dissatisfied with the president, Congress and the direction of the nation, I am finally seeing a significant amount of evidence at the local level — in polling data and in recent primary election results — that the national mood is having an…

Rothenberg Predicts Greater Gains for House Democrats

May 26, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

National and district-level numbers continue to raise red flags for Republicans around the country. In past cycles, the question was whether Democrats could nationalize races and pick off enough Republican seats to get to 218 seats — and a majority. Now, the environment has already been…

Heeee’s Back: The Fall and Rise of Sen. Trent Lott

by Stuart Rothenberg May 25, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Cleveland, Miss. — Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), surrounded by well-wishers and smiling faces, looked and sounded relaxed 10 days ago as he headed toward the stage of the Bologna Performing Arts Center on the campus of Delta State University.

He was having fun, or at least it certainly looked that…

Winners & Losers: Week of May 15-19

May 23, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT


Patrick Murphy (D). This is one Iraq War veteran who actually performed close to the expectations. Murphy defeated former Bucks County Commissioner Andy Warren, who used to be a Republican, 65%-35% in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 8th District. The Philadelphia suburbs are ripe…