2024 House Overview: Holding Pattern

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

A presidential year and presidential-level turnout was supposed to boost Democratic chances down the ballot. But that’s not how the cycle is playing out. Instead of President Joe Biden’s re-election carrying Democrats to a House majority, Democratic House candidates are trying to defy political gravity by overperforming the president’s mediocre performance at the top of the ticket. 

There’s still time for Biden to salvage a narrow victory, but he’s struggling to reach his 2020 vote totals. Instead, down ballot Democrats have to hope voters reserve their frustration for Biden, distrust GOP candidates, and rely on ticket-splitters in order to win the majority, which goes against recent trends.

The fight for the House is in a bit of a holding pattern. We’re changing the rating in just three races, all on the outskirts of the House battleground. The dust continues to settle in the presidential race after former President Donald Trump’s felony convictions and it’s unclear how next week’s debate will impact the race. Partisan strategists are also actively gathering polling data on the few dozen districts at the core of the battleground.

Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to win the majority, but the path to the majority continues to be easier for Republicans if they win the races they are currently favored to win. The 189 races rated as Solid Republican, added to the 27 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Republican gets…

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