Montana 1 Poll: Tranel and Tester on the Edge
One of 2022’s most surprising House races looks headed for a similarly hard-fought finish this year.
Montana’s Ryan Zinke — a onetime rising star with a military background, two statewide victories, and a stint as Interior Secretary — was nearly denied in his attempt to return to Congress from Big Sky County by attorney and former Olympian Monica Tranel.
Now Tranel is back for a rematch, and while the race isn’t flying under the radar as it did two years ago, it looks just as competitive, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
In the Sept. 11-14 survey, fielded entirely after the presidential debate, Zinke led Tranel by 4 points.
The poll also tested the blockbuster Senate race, and found warning signs for embattled Sen. Jon Tester as he fights to keep his seat — and a Democratic majority.
The Lay of the Land
Montana’s 1st District spans the western third of Big Sky Country, from the Idaho border east to just outside the capital of Helena. Missoula is the largest city, and the biggest source of Democratic votes. The district also includes fast-growing Bozeman.
The 1st is predominantly white (86 percent), with a sizable Native American population (7 percent) — the district is home to two reservations.
Politically, the district is the more competitive of Montana’s two seats and while it leans Republican, Democrats have carried it in statewide contests.
In 2020, Biden would have lost the district by about 7 points,…
