Presidential: Biden’s Exit Steers Election Into Uncharted Waters

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Unthinkable even a month ago, President Joe Biden’s decision to decline the Democratic nomination upends the 2024 election 106 days before Election Day.

Biden’s exit comes after an agonizing three weeks following his dismal debate performance against former President Donald Trump, and at a moment when much seems to be going wrong for Democrats. Not only did Biden trail Trump in general election polling in nearly all key swing states, but his poor performance was making life more difficult for House and Senate Democratic candidates, who were relying on historic levels of ticket-splitting to outpace their GOP opponents.

While the path to a majority in the House was still clear for Democrats, it had become more difficult. And the path to maintaining a majority in the Senate had become exceedingly narrow with the prospect of Vice President J.D. Vance being able to break tie votes in a 50-50 chamber.

Even with such a significant change in the race, it’s healthy to listen to our own advice and remember the worst time to analyze the political fallout from an event is during it or in the immediate aftermath. That’s where we are now. But it’s OK to make some educated guesses on how it changes the electoral equation. 

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