California 45: Tran Melts Steel’s Advantage
How did a little-known attorney, a first-time candidate who “came out of nowhere,” defeat a mainstay of Orange County politics in one of the closest races of the 2024 cycle?
That’s the question Republicans are asking themselves in California’s 45th District after Derek Tran, a 44-year-old lawyer, Army veteran and political neophyte defeated GOP Rep. Michelle Steel by 653 votes in the most expensive House race this year.
The answer, according to interviews with nearly a dozen national and local political operatives involved or familiar with the race, can’t be reduced to just one issue or development,
The 45th, a racially diverse swing seat that includes the most Vietnamese-American areas in the country, was close up and down the ballot. Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump by 1.5 points at the top of the ticket, while Democratic Senate candidate Adam Schiff lost to Republican Steve Garvey by 1 percent.
March 23: Tran Wins the Primary
Tran was a later entrant into the primary, joining the race on October 2, 2023. Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza had been in the race since late January; she had deep connections within the local political scene and in Democratic circles in Washington, DC and endorsements to match. Party strategists liked that she was young and of mixed Vietnamese and Hispanic heritage.
But her fundraising struggles created an opening for Tran, who had initially been considering a run for local…
