2024 House Overview: Road is Easier for the GOP

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

Despite heading into the fall with two aging and unpopular politicians at the top of the ticket, party strategists on both sides of the aisle see some reason for optimism in the fight for the House. 

Republicans see President Joe Biden’s job approval rating hovering near 40 percent, voters thinking more fondly of President Donald Trump’s first term compared to their current situation, and find it hard to see how they’ll lose the majority under those conditions. Democrats believe voters are making a distinction between Biden and down ballot races and see their candidates overperforming the top of the ticket enough to win.

Special elections have consequences. Democrats started the cycle needing a net gain of five seats for a majority. But after winning New York’s 3rd District in mid-February, the magic number is down to just four for Democrats. 

Primary elections are important as well. Even though the general election is more than seven months away, 10 candidates have already effectively secured their spot in the next Congress by winning primaries in solidly Democratic or Republican districts.  

The majority math is easier for Republicans if they win the races they are currently favored to win. The 188 races rated as Solid Republican added to the 28 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Republican gets the GOP to 216 seats. That means Republicans need to win just two of the 10 Toss-up races to get to 218. 

The math is more…

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