California 47: Orange County Open

Once again, it could come down to the suburbs. The 2024 election cycle is just a couple of months old, yet some battlegrounds are emerging, including one in Southern California. 

Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein has been a fixture in California politics for more than 40 years, but most observers believe she’s headed for the exit. And an all-but-open Senate seat, just the second in three decades, is already causing a domino effect across the Golden State. As Reps. Katie Porter and Adam Schiff launch Senate campaigns, with fellow Reps. Barbara Lee and Ro Khanna potentially to follow, a buffet of House seats will be up for grabs in 2024. 

Schiff’s, Lee’s and Khanna’s seats are all Solid Democratic, and while that doesn’t mean they won’t be contested among Democrats, they also won’t affect the majority math next year.

But Porter’s 2022 re-election was among the most competitive races in the country. And as Republicans strive to maintain their narrow House majority, the opportunity to flip an Orange County open seat is enticing, especially for newly-minted Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Californian himself.

The race has already attracted several heavy hitters: a former congressman, Harley Rouda; the 2022 GOP nominee, Scott Baugh; and a sitting state senator backed by Porter, Dave Min. 

The Lay of the Land
The 47th District sits entirely within Orange County, south of Los Angeles. It runs along the Pacific coastline from Seal Beach southeast through Laguna Beach, and also…

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