Ohio 9 Poll: Individual Brands Still Matter
July 31, 2024 · 8:30 AM EDT
Democratic incumbents in the House and Senate still have the potential to run ahead of the national environment, according to exclusive polling of a northwest Ohio district conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
In Ohio’s 9th District, longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Sen. Sherrod Brown enjoyed double-digit leads over their lesser-known opponents, while Vice President Kamala Harris begins the general election tied with former President Donald Trump.
NPI surveyed 435 likely voters in Ohio’s 9th District from July 22-24, after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, who quickly consolidated Democratic support as the new presumptive nominee.
While Ohio is no longer a presidential battleground, the 9th District and Senate race are at or close to the core of the congressional battlefield.
The Lay of the Land
The 9th District sits in the northwestern corner of the Buckeye State, bordering Indiana, Michigan, and Lake Erie. Its largest city is Toledo, which makes up about a third of the district’s population.
Kaptur has represented the 9th since 1983, making her the longest-serving woman in Congressional history. While her seat has historically been solidly Democratic, Republican legislators redrew it to be significantly more competitive following the 2020 census.
Under the new lines, Trump would have carried the 9th by 3 points, 51-48 percent, an improvement upon his 48-47 percent win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is predominantly white (80 percent) and just 27 percent of residents have a four-year degree.
The House Race
Kaptur faces state Rep. Derek Merrin this fall. The Republican was heavily recruited by national GOP leaders hoping to avoid a repeat nomination of J.R. Majewski, the 2022 candidate who lost to Kaptur in spectacular fashion after exaggerating his biography.
Kaptur led Merrin by 10 points, 47-37 percent, in the NPI/Inside Elections poll; 16 percent of voters said they were undecided.
Most voters have an opinion of Kaptur — her image rating was 45 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable — but Merrin is still largely unknown. His image was even at 20 percent favorable and 20 percent unfavorable.
Kaptur has consolidated virtually all of the Democratic vote in the district; she had support from 98 percent of self-identified Democrats while Merrin had just 81 percent support from Republicans (Kaptur polled at 7 percent among Republicans).
Merrin was a late entrant into the GOP primary and has lagged in fundraising. He reported $408,000 in the bank on June 30 compared to $2.6 million for Kaptur. But both parties have signaled significant investment in the district for the fall: Democrats’ DCCC and House Majority PAC have reserved $3.1 million in TV advertising while Republicans’ NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $2.9 million, according to AdImpact.
The Presidential Race
While Trump carried the 9th by increasing margins in 2016 and 2020, the poll indicates the district is up for grabs in 2024.
In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Harris, the district split evenly, 46 percent to 46 percent. When voters were offered minor-party candidates as options, Trump and Harris both received 44 percent while Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took 3 percent, Libertarian Chase Oliver took 2 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein took 1 percent.
Democrats’ switch at the top of the ticket means the party is no longer saddled with a deeply unpopular nominee. Just 36 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 60 percent had an unfavorable opinion. But voters are more evenly divided in their view of Harris, whose favorable and unfavorable ratings sat at 47 percent apiece.
That means Trump, at 46 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable, is actually the less popular candidate in the race, and in a district he carried in 2020.
His vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, sported a 43 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable image.
The Senate Race
In the state’s toss-up Senate race, Brown faces car dealer and entrepreneur Bernie Moreno. The contest is a must-win for Democrats if they want to maintain control of the Senate.
In 2018, as he coasted to a 7-point win statewide, Brown carried the 9th District by a whopping 17 points, 58-41 percent.
In the 9th District poll, Brown led Moreno by 13 points, 49-36 percent.
The incumbent has consolidated Democratic voters, winning 94 percent of voters who said they will also vote for Harris, while Moreno has yet to win over Republicans. Just 75 percent of Trump 2024 voters said they will back him, while 8 percent said they will vote for Brown.
Brown is significantly better-known than Moreno: 45 percent of voters viewed him favorably while 36 percent viewed him unfavorably, while just 26 percent of voters had a favorable view of Moreno and 36 percent had an unfavorable view. Another 38 percent had never heard of him or had no opinion.
That is likely to change as the general election swings into full gear. Brown, Moreno, and their outside allies have reserved a combined $180 million in TV advertisements for this fall (evenly split between Democratic and Republican entities).
If Trump and Vance win at the top of the ticket, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine will need to appoint a replacement for Vance in the Senate. Former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has made his interest in the seat well known, but he is still a bit of a cypher to Ohio voters, at least in the 9th District: 30 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of him while 32 percent had an unfavorable opinion.
The Bottom Line
Democratic enthusiasm is supercharged following Biden’s exit and Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket. After a brutal month — the first presidential debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican National Convention — Democrats finally have found reason to be optimistic, and have rallied around their candidates in Ohio’s 9th District.
That puts Republicans in a more tenuous position than they appeared to be in Inside Elections’ last midwestern swing district poll, in Michigan’s 7th District. But there are reasons for GOP optimism in this survey as well.
Both Kaptur and Brown are close to universally known but neither broke 50 percent in their matchups, despite carrying the district handily in their last races. Both will face an onslaught of negative attacks unlike what they have experienced previously. Merrin and Moreno, the GOP candidates, are still largely unknown and have the opportunity to define themselves and consolidate party support before Election Day.
But the close presidential result, in a district that has otherwise trended toward Republicans, makes clear that the GOP cannot take this district for granted — especially with Harris resetting the race at the top of the ticket.
Methodology
This poll was conducted via text and live caller. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 22-24, 2024, from a sample of Ohio voters obtained from the voter file. The sample size was 435 likely general election voters, obtained via screening questions. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, county, education, and recalled 2020 vote.
Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. The margin of error was +/- 4.7% Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
Crosstabs are available here.