House News & Analysis

Illinois Districts: New Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 1, 2011 · 3:00 PM EDT

The Land of Lincoln will host some of the biggest House races this year, which isn’t great news for Republicans since Barack Obama will be on the ballot once again.

Democrats weren’t in charge of drawing new congressional maps in too many states, but they were in Illinois,…

Republicans Try to Even the Score with New North Carolina Lines

by Stuart Rothenberg July 1, 2011 · 12:20 PM EDT

National Republican strategists, still smarting from creative Democratic map-making in Illinois, finally have a reason to smile.

North Carolina Republicans have a new Congressional map that is likely to cost Democrats at least three seats and quite possibly four in 2012.

Republican insiders are particularly proud that…

Obama Visits Media Market He Shunned in 2008

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 30, 2011 · 9:47 AM EDT

With his trip to Davenport, Iowa, on Tuesday, President Barack Obama returns to a media market that he shunned in the 2008 presidential contest.

Even though Iowa is traditionally a swing state, the Obama campaign refused to air television ads in the general election in the Quad Cities…

The Politics of the Debt Ceiling Are Too Tempting

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2011 · 1:01 PM EDT

With President Barack Obama’s job approval sliding, the stock market showing its nerves, the public increasingly pessimistic about a jobs rebound and signs of a slowing economy everywhere, the president looks to be increasingly in trouble.

Trying to take advantage of what they see as an opportunity, Congressional…

2012 House Overview (June 20, 2011)

June 20, 2011 · 10:00 PM EDT

The outlook for the House in 2012 continues to look hazy because of the slow pace of redistricting.

Around the country, Republicans are trying to solidify their 2010 gains, while Democrats are hoping that the combination of a presidential election and the Ryan budget proposal’s handling of Medicare…

Redistricting’s Bottom Line Might Surprise You

by Stuart Rothenberg June 15, 2011 · 9:36 AM EDT

Six months ago, before redistricting had even begun, Republicans were optimistic they would gain additional seats, or, as former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie put it, that they would “gain or protect” 15 to 25 seats.

Not surprisingly, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) disagreed,…

Is History on House Members’ Side in 2012?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 10, 2011 · 11:01 AM EDT

Even longtime political analysts sometimes fall into a rut, and that’s where I’ve been in thinking about whether a Member of the House of Representatives can be nominated for president.

“No,” has been my knee-jerk reaction, falling back on the time-tested explanation that House members don’t get nominated…

30 Years Later, Nolan Considers Comeback Bid

by Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2011 · 9:05 AM EDT

The story of former Rep. Richard Nolan’s possible comeback attempt more than 30 years after he last served in the House may end up merely as an asterisk in any post-mortem of the 2012 election cycle.

But for those of us who love the ebb and flow of…

Rhode Island 1: Do You Believe in Providence?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2011 · 4:15 PM EDT

It’s not very often that Republicans want to face a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district, but that’s the case in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District.

Even though it’s almost a year and a half until Election Day, an early public poll makes a compelling case that Democrat…

Why You Need to Ignore Most Current Polling

by Stuart Rothenberg June 3, 2011 · 10:48 AM EDT

My eye caught a small item in Roll Call on Tuesday announcing that “Blackwell Leads GOP Senate Hopefuls in Ohio Poll,” a reference to the 2012 Ohio Senate contest.

Polls are news, of course, so this newspaper and its competitors dutifully report them, eager to post a new…