House News & Analysis

Scenario #1: Base Turns Out Late, Saves Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:50 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…

2010 House Overview (October 1, 2010)

October 1, 2010 · 4:33 PM EDT

Talk of increased Democratic enthusiasm and an aggressive effort by national Democratic strategists to emphasize districts where Democrats are running well shouldn’t obscure the big picture: Republicans are still headed for large – possibly huge – gains, and they are more likely than not to win a majority of…

Parties’ Opposition Research Efforts Fuel Late Ads

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 30, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

As voters are being bombarded with political attack ads in the lead-up to November, few likely realize that what appears as a fine-print citation in a 30-second television commercial is the result of months of opposition research and an orchestrated communication effort by parties and candidates.

In a…

Final Stretch Not as Important as You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.

Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but…

2010 House Overview (September 24, 2010)

September 24, 2010 · 5:18 PM EDT

From the White House to the DCCC, Democratic strategists argue that enthusiasm among the Democratic base will help save a number of seats now considered to be vulnerable. In response to the barrage of Republican polls showing GOP candidates in strong position, Democrats have released a select number of…

State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

by Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory…

Is This an Anti-Incumbent Year? Not So Far

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 21, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Countless stories and hours of cable television have been filled with analysis describing this year’s elections as tantamount to an anti-incumbent wave.

But as the primaries come to a close, it’s clear that instead of throwing the bums out, voters have let the vast majority of incumbents move…

2010 House Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:26 PM EDT

Democrats believe that they have stopped the bleeding, and they believe that they see signs of a recovery. But even they don’t know whether it’s a “dead cat bounce” or a real strengthening of Democratic numbers district by district.

With the national numbers holding, the DCCC pulling some…

District Polls Are Troubling Signs for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg September 8, 2010 · 10:38 AM EDT

While serious Democratic observers worry whether their party can somehow hang on to 218 seats in the House, more than a few Republican strategists and neutral observers have become convinced that the GOP is on the cusp of a stunning victory that could at least equal the party’s 52-seat…

Wave builds for GOP in the House

by Stuart Rothenberg September 6, 2010 · 10:30 PM EDT

National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks…