House News & Analysis

Is History on House Members’ Side in 2012?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 10, 2011 · 11:01 AM EDT

Even longtime political analysts sometimes fall into a rut, and that’s where I’ve been in thinking about whether a Member of the House of Representatives can be nominated for president.

“No,” has been my knee-jerk reaction, falling back on the time-tested explanation that House members don’t get nominated…

30 Years Later, Nolan Considers Comeback Bid

by Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2011 · 9:05 AM EDT

The story of former Rep. Richard Nolan’s possible comeback attempt more than 30 years after he last served in the House may end up merely as an asterisk in any post-mortem of the 2012 election cycle.

But for those of us who love the ebb and flow of…

Rhode Island 1: Do You Believe in Providence?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2011 · 4:15 PM EDT

It’s not very often that Republicans want to face a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district, but that’s the case in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District.

Even though it’s almost a year and a half until Election Day, an early public poll makes a compelling case that Democrat…

Why You Need to Ignore Most Current Polling

by Stuart Rothenberg June 3, 2011 · 10:48 AM EDT

My eye caught a small item in Roll Call on Tuesday announcing that “Blackwell Leads GOP Senate Hopefuls in Ohio Poll,” a reference to the 2012 Ohio Senate contest.

Polls are news, of course, so this newspaper and its competitors dutifully report them, eager to post a new…

Only Hypocrisy Is Truly Bipartisan

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2011 · 9:25 AM EDT

It’s no wonder many Americans hold politicians in low regard.

Our political “leaders” often say one thing when they are in power and something diametrically opposed when they are not. They often appear to be reading from a script, changing roles depending on whether they just won or…

Hollywood Couldn’t Save California Hopeful

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 31, 2011 · 10:06 AM EDT

Warning: The Congressional campaign on your screen is smaller than it appears.

Until a couple of weeks ago, no one had heard of Dan Adler. He was an also-ran in the crowded special election race to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D) in California’s 36th district.

But in…

GOP Might Want to Rethink the Ryan Boomlet

by Stuart Rothenberg May 27, 2011 · 9:56 AM EDT

Rep. Paul Ryan, who has been in Congress for a little more than a dozen years, isn’t exactly an overnight success. But the Wisconsin lawmaker’s new status as unassailable GOP economic guru elevates the seven-term Congressman to a level that may be dangerous both for him and his party.

Indiana Districts: Who’s Your Member?

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 20, 2011 · 3:58 PM EDT

Republicans won the bulk of the redistricting war in Indiana in 2010, but they are hoping to finish the job next year.

Like in many places across the country, Republican congressional victories last year turned potential redistricting opportunities into seats the GOP already holds. Last year, Republicans took…

Republicans Face No-Win Situation in New York 26

by Stuart Rothenberg May 20, 2011 · 12:19 PM EDT

Republican strategists are now praying that they never, ever have another special election in New York state.

First they failed to win a 2009 special election to take back Democrat Kirsten’s Gillibrand’s open seat (which they won back last year). Then, later that year, they lost the open…

New York 26: Move to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic

May 16, 2011 · 11:11 AM EDT

With a week to go until the May 24 special election in New York’s open 26th C.D., Democrat Kathy Hochul now looks well-positioned to pull off a significant upset.

Both parties agree that the race remains close – “within the margin of error” is the phrase most often…