President News & Analysis

Presidential Race Map: Obama vs. Santorum

by Stuart Rothenberg February 24, 2012 · 12:56 PM EST

After running many Obama-Romney maps and one Obama-Gingrich map, we figured it was time to offer our initial thoughts on an Obama-Santorum match-up.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is in a remarkable place now. Starting far behind the top tier candidates in the GOP race, he has emerged…

When Do Political Rules No Longer Apply?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 22, 2012 · 9:59 AM EST

If I told you that the Oakland A’s or the Pittsburgh Pirates would be in the Major League Baseball playoffs this year instead of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, you’d probably have me institutionalized.

At the…

Just How Much Does Gingrich Hate Romney?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 15, 2012 · 9:59 AM EST

Politics, for all of the focus on issues, symbols and ideology, is a deeply personal business.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) doesn’t feel deep affection for fellow Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.).

Mississippi Republican Sens. Trent Lott and Thad Cochran had no love lost when…

The Hoopla Surrounding Romney’s Electability

by Stuart Rothenberg February 10, 2012 · 8:27 AM EST

For all the hoopla over former Sen. Rick Santorum’s (Pa.) Tuesday sweep of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (and the breathless coverage over at CNN on Tuesday night was a great example of hype trumping serious analysis), the dynamics of the Republican presidential race have changed little. While former Massachusetts…

Newt’s Southern Strategy: Not Impossible, Just Very Unlikely

by Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2012 · 12:21 PM EST

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has adopted a Southern Strategy that he hopes will keep his campaign alive. It’s only a long shot, but Gingrich doesn’t have many better options.

After winning the South Carolina primary, Gingrich figures he can sweep most of the South and add victories…

Don’t Bet on Gingrich Showing Up in Tampa

by Stuart Rothenberg February 4, 2012 · 9:48 AM EST

The conventional wisdom now is that, even with the Republican nomination slipping further and further away, former Speaker Newt Gingrich will fight tooth and nail all the way to Tampa, making life miserable for the party’s likely nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

That scenario certainly is possible,…

Heading to Florida after a Big Win for Newt

by Stuart Rothenberg January 27, 2012 · 1:54 PM EST

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich swept through South Carolina on January 21st much like Sherman marched through Georgia, winning most voter groups en route to a double-digit victory.

Gingrich, who drew 40% of the vote, rolled up particularly strong margins among evangelical Christians, among those voters who said a…

What Are the Chances of a Republican White Knight?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 27, 2012 · 8:00 AM EST

The idea probably is somewhere between nutty and delusional, but given the weird ups and downs this cycle, nutty isn’t impossible.

As Republican insiders of various ideological bent, from the more moderate to the uncompromisingly conservative, watch the presidential nominating process with increasing alarm, there is more than…

Will GOP Risk Goldwater II With Newt Gingrich in 2012?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2012 · 11:20 AM EST

In 1964, an angry Republican Party threw caution to the wind and nominated conservative Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater for president. Eight years later, Democrats rallied behind South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, an unapologetic liberal.

In each case, the party’s rank and file embraced what it thought was a…

Mitt McCain — The GOP’s Strange Replay of 2008

by Stuart Rothenberg January 18, 2012 · 9:20 AM EST

The combination of Mitt Romney’s 16-point victory in New Hampshire and his rousing election night speech launched the former Massachusetts governor toward South Carolina with the kind of old-fashioned momentum that any candidate for high office would love.

Of course, Romney’s competitors are not without their assets. Former…