President News & Analysis

An Early Look at 2012 ‘Elite Eight’ Battleground

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2011 · 8:48 AM EST

At least eight states that are likely to be among the most competitive and fiercely fought on the presidential level next year are also headed for high-profile Senate contests that could determine control of the chamber.

The list includes Florida and Virginia in the South, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri…

Tim Pawlenty’s Michele Bachmann Problem

by Stuart Rothenberg March 2, 2011 · 12:05 PM EST

In a Republican presidential race that could include the likes of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Mississippi Gov. (and former Republican National Committee Chairman) Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty’s most troublesome potential opponent could well be a fellow Minnesotan, Rep. Michele Bachmann.


Why Romney Is a Very Frail GOP Frontrunner

by Stuart Rothenberg February 7, 2011 · 9:00 AM EST

Unlike the Democrats, who almost always at least flirt with off-beat presidential hopefuls and sometimes even pick a nominee who started as a long shot for their nomination, Republicans have, over the past 50 years, generally preferred “the next guy in line” when they select their White House nominees.

Forecasts of Obama Rebound a Bit Premature

by Stuart Rothenberg February 1, 2011 · 8:35 AM EST

President Barack Obama’s standing is too often being treated as the political equivalent of a bull market. His approval is rising. He is receiving praise for his rhetoric and strategic positioning. He has drawn kudos for personnel changes. Suddenly, we are told, his political future is bright.


New Iowa Caucuses GOP Poll: Both Accurate and Meaningless

by Stuart Rothenberg August 16, 2010 · 3:17 PM EDT

Can a poll be both correct and totally, utterly meaningless? Absolutely, and the new Group LLC survey conducted by Voter Consumer Research is a great example.

GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen’s firm is one of those survey research firms that is widely trusted by political handicappers and…

In the Delta, Everyone’s Buzzing About Barbour

by Stuart Rothenberg June 10, 2010 · 8:59 AM EDT

GREENVILLE, Miss. — Politically interested folks in the Mississippi Delta spent the last few days of May wondering about whether Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln will survive today’s Democratic runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and whether Democratic Rep. Travis Childers of Mississippi’s 1st district can win in a Republican…

When Campaigns Lie, What Should the Voters Do?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT

Now that both campaigns have lost all of their credibility by distorting each other’s records and agendas, where does the 2008 presidential contest stand?

I don’t have data on this, but I’m willing to bet that at this point in the race most voters don’t believe…

It Ain’t Over Till the Fat Lady Sings ... and She Hasn’t Yet

March 10, 2008 · 12:05 AM EDT
By Stuart Rothenberg

OK, it’s official: The Democratic race for president is officially screwed up. Forget the silly candidate spinning. With any luck, you weren’t listening when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s operatives told you what New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton needed to do in order to win or…

Did Edwards’ Slip Help Clinton in New Hampshire?

January 9, 2008 · 8:46 AM EST
By Stuart Rothenberg

While some will suggest that Sen. Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire victory can be traced to her emotional comments shortly before the primary, and others will credit Bill Clinton, there is some evidence to suggest that the collapse of the John Edwards campaign in the Granite State…