After living underground for 17 years, cicadas must find the political world a confusing place. So if you see any perplexed cicadas flying around the Washington area, wondering how things changed since the spring of 2004, just send them a link to this quick update.
Considering Republicans were in control…
Joe Biden has only been president for a few months, but pundits and prognosticators alike are already looking at what the tea leaves may suggest about the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats currently maintain the slimmest of majorities; House Republicans need to gain just five seats to flip the chamber. Historically,…
If redistricting hadn’t complicated the midterm elections enough, a Supreme Court decision on one of the country’s most polarizing issues has the potential to supercharge the fight for the House and Senate.
Last month, the Supreme Court announced it would hear a challenge to a new Mississippi law —…
More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.
Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does…
In the six weeks since November 3rd, much has been said about the performance of election polling. Were the polls good enough, or were they catastrophically wrong? The answer of course depends on whom you ask, but one thing is clear: pollsters could have done better.
To be fair, the…
In 2016, Donald Trump shocked the world by flipping three “Blue Wall” states that had voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although Barack Obama carried these states by comfortable margins in 2008 and 2012, Trump narrowly carried each of them by less than 1…
After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…
One of the first signs that we were in for a long election week was when Miami-Dade County, Florida released its first vote totals. Although Joe Biden won Miami-Dade County 53 percent to 46 percent, this was a substantial decline from Hillary Clinton’s 64 percent to 34 percent…
The 2020 campaign isn’t quite over yet, but it is reaching the denouement. And as the final surveys continue to trickle in until Tuesday, now is a great time to step back and contextualize the trends driving the past six months of general election polls.
Starting off with today’s topline:…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.
While it’s…
