President News & Analysis
Six Months from Election Day, Expect the Expected
May 7, 2020 · 2:56 PM EDT
Anything can happen in November. At least that’s what we’re supposed to say. But is it really true?
Even in the middle of a global pandemic and after a historic impeachment process, the political environment hasn’t changed dramatically over the last year and a half. The coronavirus has crippled the…
Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 1, 2020)
May 1, 2020 · 12:15 PM EDT
With the Democratic primary in the rearview mirror, we can focus on the matchup between President…
Five Key Takeaways from the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
April 22, 2020 · 10:34 AM EDT
A week ago, challenger Jill Karofsky won a hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court election, defeating incumbent Daniel Kelly. Even though it was a state race, the results were the latest evidence that the Badger State will be a presidential battleground in November.
Although Wisconsin judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, Karofsky…
Questioning My Boldest Projection for 2020
April 13, 2020 · 8:13 AM EDT
Through all of the twists and turns of this election, I’ve been confident about one thing: record-breaking turnout. Obviously, with the spread of a pandemic, I’ve started to question my projection a bit.
I first wrote about the potential for a record-setting turnout in December 2018, and for the most…
Coronavirus and Campaign Ads: How the Pandemic Is Playing on TV
April 8, 2020 · 9:15 AM EDT
The attack ad began as many do: ominous music, stock photos of people looking worried, a narrator gravely intoning on the failure of Montana Sen. Steve Daines to protect his constituents’ healthcare.
But this ad, which was produced by Democratic group Protect Our Care and aired on March 12 in…
Amidst Coronavirus Crisis, Presidential Race Takes Shape
April 3, 2020 · 2:26 PM EDT
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Even though the coronavirus is a historic global event, the most important political event over the last couple months was the near end of the Democratic primary and the likely nomination of former Vice President Joe Biden.
Biden isn’t a perfect candidate,…
Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling
March 25, 2020 · 8:15 AM EDT
The 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan was a wakeup call. With every recent survey of the state showing Hillary Clinton ahead by double digits, many deemed a Bernie Sanders victory out of the question — until results came in. The Vermont senator’s 23 percentage point overperformance is now considered one…
Coronavirus and the Elections: 7 Key Questions
March 17, 2020 · 8:45 AM EDT
Unfortunately, it sounds like we’re just at the beginning of what could be a multi-week or multi-month coronavirus crisis, so handicapping the pandemic’s impact on the elections is premature. But there are at least a handful of questions that will lead us to understanding the fallout, once the situation and…
Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona
March 6, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST
If the Democratic nominee won all three of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this November, he would win back the White House (assuming no other changes to the 2016 electoral map). But if President Donald Trump were to win just one of those states, Democrats would need to make up ground…
