Electoral Implications of Trump’s Cabinet Picks
President-elect Donald Trump is wasting little time filling out key positions in his incoming administration, and so far he is drawing heavily on GOP elected officials. That means vacancies, and at least a handful of special elections in early 2025.
In 2017 and 2018, special elections to the House and Senate served as early warning signs for voters’ unhappiness with Trump and the GOP, and presaged a strong midterm performance for Democrats.
This year, a narrowly divided House of Representatives will be made even more so in the early, most crucial days of the administration after Trump tapped at least two congressmembers.
Speaker Mike Johnson could find himself with as narrow as a 218-215 seat majority for several months.
New York’s 21st District
Trump announced Rep. Elise Stefanik as his pick for ambassador to the United Nations. Assuming Senate confirmation, that will create a vacancy in the 21st District, a large North Country seat that borders Vermont and Canada.
Stefanik’s seat was among the most competitive in the nation in the late 2000s, when Democrat Bill Owens flipped it in a 2009 special election and ground out two more tough wins in 2010 and 2012.
Even under its current lines, Barack Obama would have won the district twice by small margins.
But over the past decade the North Country has veered sharply rightward. Trump would have carried the district by 18 points in 2016, 15 points in 2020, and in the neighborhood of 21 points in 2024. (More precise…
