2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 11, 2022)
November 11, 2022 · 10:30 AM EST
Updated as of Nov. 11, 2022 at 9am ET
By Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales
Apparently, there aren’t any normal elections.
While there are still a couple dozen consequential races to be called and the fight for both the House or Senate majorities is ongoing, it’s clear that the 2022 midterm elections are not aligning neatly with historical trends.
With President Joe Biden’s slumping job approval rating and Americans prioritizing concerns about inflation, Republicans were poised to take back Congress. But the GOP’s path was complicated by underwhelming Senate nominees in critical states and independent voters who didn’t hold Democratic candidates responsible for the president’s job approval — or were unsure of putting Republicans in charge.
It’s best to wait until all the races have been called before doing any deep analysis, but some initial takeaways have already surfaced.
The fight for the Senate was always projected to be close and remains so. The final Senate outcome is going to fall within our projected range of a Republican gain of two seats to a Democratic gain of one seat.
Even with three key Senate races and a couple dozen competitive House races yet to be called, we can say that it was a good cycle for polling. Of course all the polls were not accurate, but our individual race ratings, driven by public and private survey data, are performing very well. Just three House races have gone against the party they leaned toward thus far: two Tilt Democratic races in Long Island, NY, that Republicans won and Colorado's new district, where Democrats prevailed.
The fight for the House is emerging as the biggest surprise of the cycle. Republicans are unlikely to reach our range of a gain of 13-30 seats, if they win the majority at all. Independent voters who disapproved of the job Biden is doing and who prioritized economic concerns did not break toward Republican candidates as expected.
Overall, independent voters supported Democratic candidates narrowly, 49-47 percent, according to the CNN exit poll. That’s down from 2020, when independent voters supported Biden 54-41 percent, but nowhere near the typical midterm cycle that was expected.
If the ratings had held true, with each party winning all the seats where they were favored and the 20 toss-up races splitting evenly, that would have resulted in a GOP gain of 13 seats. But toss-up races are breaking disproportionately for Democrats, and the most likely House range is now closer to R +4-11 seats.
There is also the possibility that Democrats hold their House majority and lose control of the Senate. That scenario was unthinkable at any point in the cycle.
One thing that may come back to bite House Democrats is the number of incumbents in competitive districts who decided not to run for re-election, or run in a less competitive seat. In Michigan’s 10th District and Wisconsin’s 3rd District, highly touted GOP nominees didn’t have to run against well-funded Democratic incumbents but are barely eking out wins over their unheralded opponents. And in New York’s 3rd and 4th Districts, Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice would have been better-positioned to hold the line against the ultimately victorious GOP nominees.
With the majority math so tight, that could make all the difference — as could court decisions striking down Democratic gerrymanders in New York and Maryland, and other court cases sustaining GOP gerrymanders in Florida and Texas.
We’ll update this over the next couple of weeks, but here’s where things stand as of 9:45am:
SENATE
Balance of Power
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 48
Uncalled Races: 3
Uncalled Senate Races
Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
Alaska (will be a Republican)
Defeated Senators
None (yet)
New Senators
Katie Boyd Britt (R-AL)
Eric Schmitt (R-MO)
Ted Budd (R-NC)
J.D. Vance (R-OH)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK)
John Fetterman (D-PA)
Peter Welch (D-VT)
Competitive Race Detail as of 9am, 11/11/2022
According to the Associated Press
Nevada
Cortez-Masto (D): 48.00%
Laxalt (R): 48.97%
None of These Candidates: 1.18%
Estimated % of vote counted: 90%
Called by: TBD
Arizona
Kelly (D): 51.7%
Masters (R): 46.1%
Estimated % of vote counted: 82%
Called by: TBD
Georgia
Warnock (D): 49.4%
Walker (R): 48.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: Dec. 6 runoff called by AP, DDHQ
New Hampshire
Hassan (D): 53.6%
Bolduc (R): 44.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Pennsylvania
Fetterman (D): 50.9%
Oz (R): 46.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Wisconsin
Johnson (R): 50.5%
Barnes (D): 49.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
North Carolina
Budd (R): 50.7%
Beasley (D): 47.1%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Ohio
Vance (R): 53.3%
Ryan (D): 46.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Washington
Murray (D): 56.3%
Smiley (R): 43.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: 70%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Colorado
Bennet (D): 54.9%
O’Dea (R): 42.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: 92%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Florida
Rubio (R): 57.7%
Demings (D): 41.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Utah
Lee (R): 54.9%
McMullin (I): 41.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: 71%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Iowa
Grassley (R): 56.1%
Franken (D): 43.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
HOUSE
Balance of Power
Republicans: TBD
Democrats: TBD
Uncalled Competitive Races: 20
Pre-election range: GOP +13-30
Updated most likely range based on results: GOP +4-11 (+5 needed for majority)
Uncalled Competitive House Races
Likely Democratic
AZ-04 (Stanton, D)
CA-09 (Harder, D)
CA-26 (Brownley, D)
MD-06 (Trone, D)
Lean Democratic
AK-AL (Peltola, D)
Tilt Democratic
CA-47 (Porter, D)
CA-49 (Levin, D)
ME-02 (Golden, D)
Toss-up
CA-13 (Open; Harder, D)
CA-22 (Valadao, R)
NY-22 (Open; Katko, R)
OR-06 (Open; New)
Tilt Republican
CA-27 (Garcia, R)
OR-05 (Open; Schrader, D)
Lean Republican
AZ-01 (Schweikert, R)
CA-45 (Steel, R)
WA-03 (Open; Herrera Beutler, R)
Likely Republican
CA-03 (Open; McClintock, R)
Uncalled Solid Republican House Races to Watch
CO-03 (Boebert, R)
CA-41 (Calvert, R)
Called Competitive House Races
Races in italics are flips
Likely Democratic
CO-07 (Open; Perlmutter, D) - Brittany Pettersen (D)
IL-06 (Newman, D/Casten, D) - Rep. Sean Casten (D)
IL-14 (Underwood, D) - Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
NH-02 (Kuster, D) - Rep. Ann Kuster (D)
NC-01 (Open; Butterfield, D) - Don Davis (D)
NJ-03 (Kim, D) - Rep. Andy Kim (D)
NY-25 (Morelle, D) - Rep. Joseph Morelle (D)
PA-12 (Open; Doyle, D) - Summer Lee (D)
VA-10 (Wexton, D) - Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D)
Lean Democratic
IN-01 (Mrvan, D) - Rep. Frank Mrvan (D)
MI-08 (Kildee, D) - Rep. Dan Kildee (D)
OH-09 (Kaptur, D) - Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
NV-04 (Horsford, D) - Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
TX-28 (Cuellar, D) - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)
Tilt Democratic
IL-13 (Open; Davis, R) - Nikki Budzinski (D)
KS-03 (Davids, D) - Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
MI-03 (Open; Meijer, R) - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-07 (Slotkin, D) - Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)
NH-01 (Pappas, D) - Rep. Chris Pappas (D)
NV-01 (Titus, D) - Rep. Dina Titus (D)
NV-03 (Lee, D) - Rep. Susie Lee (D)
NY-03 (Open; Suozzi, D) - George Santos (R)
NY-04 (Open; Rice, D) - Anthony D’Esposito (R)
NY-18 (Ryan, D) - Rep. Pat Ryan (D)
OR-04 (Open; DeFazio, D) - Val Hoyle (D)
VA-07 (Spanberger, D) - Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)
Toss-up
CT-05 (Hayes, D) - Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)
IL-17 (Open; Bustos, D) - Eric Sorensen (D)
MN-02 (Craig, DFL) - Rep. Angie Craig (D)
NC-13 (Open; R) - Wiley Nickel (D)
NE-02 (Bacon, R) - Rep. Don Bacon (R)
NM-02 (Herrell, R) - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-17 (S.P. Maloney, D) - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 (Open; Ryan, D) - Marc Molinaro (R)
OH-01 (Chabot, R) - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-13 (Open; Ryan, D) - Emilia Sykes (D)
PA-07 (Wild, D) - Rep. Susan Wild (D)
PA-08 (Cartwright, D) - Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-17 (Open; Lamb, D) - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 (Open; Langevin, D) - Seth Magaziner (D)
TX-34 (Flores, R/Gonzalez, D) - Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)
WA-08 (Schrier, D) - Rep. Kim Schrier (D)
Tilt Republican
AZ-06 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D) - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CO-08 (Open; New) - Yadira Caraveo (D)
IA-02 (Hinson, R) - Rep. Ashley Hinson (R)
IA-03 (Axne, D) - Zach Nunn (R)
NJ-07 (Malinowski, D) - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
VA-02 (Luria, D) - Jen Kiggans (R)
Lean Republican
AZ-02 (O'Halleran, D) - Eli Crane (R)
FL-13 (Open; Crist, D) - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
IA-01 (Miller-Meeks, R) - Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks (R)
MI-10 (Open; Levin, D) - John James (R)
MT-01 (Open, New) - Ryan Zinke (R)
NY-01 (Open; Zeldin, R) - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-02 (Garbarino, R) - Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R)
TX-15 (Open; V. Gonzalez, D) - Monica De La Cruz (R)
WI-03 (Open; Kind, D) - Derrick Van Orden (R)
Likely Republican
CA-40 (Kim, R) - Rep. Young Kim (R)
FL-05 (Lawson, D) - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
FL-07 (Open; Murphy, D) - Cory Mills (R)
FL-15 (Open; Franklin, R) - Laurel Lee (R)
FL-27 (Salazar, R) - Rep. Marie Elvira Salazar (R)
GA-06 (Open; McBath, D) - Rich McCormick (R)
NY-11 (Malliotakis, R) - Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)
TN-05 (Open; Cooper, D) - Andy Ogles (R)
Defeated incumbents
Defeated in General
Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ)
Rep. Al Lawson (D-FL)
Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA)
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM)
Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH)
Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX)
Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA)
Defeated in Primary
Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA)
Rep. Marie Newman (D-IL)
Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)
Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI)
Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI)
Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS)
Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC)
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY)
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR)
Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC)
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)
Rep. David McKinley (R-WV)
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY)
Districts That Flipped
AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
FL-05 - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NJ-7 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D’Esposito (R)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-34 - Vicente Gonzalez (D)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)
New House Members
AL-05 - Dale Strong (R)
AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CA-37 - Sydney Kamlager (D)
CA-42 - Robert Garcia (D)
CO-07 - Brittany Pettersen (D)
CO-08 - Yadira Caraveo (D)
FL-04 - Aaron Bean (R)
FL-07 - Cory Mills (R)
FL-10 - Maxwell Frost (D)
FL-13 - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
FL-15 - Laurel Lee (R)
GA-06 - Rich McCormick (R)
GA-10 - Mike Collins (R)
HI-02 - Jill Tokuda (D)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-01 - Jonathan Jackson (D)
IL-03 - Delia Ramirez (D)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
IL-17 - Eric Sorensen (D)
IN-02 - Rudy Yakym (R)
IN-09 - Erin Houchin (R)
KY-03 - Morgan McGarvey (D)
MD-04 - Glenn Ivey (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
MI-13 - Shri Thanedar (D)
MO-04 - Mark Alford (R)
MO-07 - Eric Burlison (R)
MS-04 - Mike Ezell (R)
MT-01 - Ryan Zinke (R)
NC-01 - Don Davis (D)
NC-04 - Valerie Foushee (D)
NC-11 - Chuck Edwards (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NC-14 - Jeff Jackson (D)
NJ-07 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NJ-08 - Robert Menendez Jr. (D)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-01 - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D'Esposito (R)
NY-10 - Dan Goldman (D)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
NY-23 - Nick Langworthy (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-07 - Max Miller (R)
OH-13 - Emilia Sykes (D)
OK-02 - Josh Brecheen (R)
OR-04 - Val Hoyle (D)
PA-12 - Summer Lee (D)
PA-17 - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 - Seth Magaziner (D)
SC-07 - Russell Fry (R)
TN-05 - Andy Ogles (R)
TX-01 - Nathaniel Moran (R)
TX-03 - Keith Self (R)
TX-08 - Morgan Luttrell (R)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-30 - Jasmine Crockett (D)
TX-35 - Greg Casar (D)
TX-38 - Wesley Hunt (R)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)
VT-AL - Becca Balint (D)
WI-03 - Derrick Van Orden (R)
WY-AL - Harriet Hageman (R)
GOVERNOR
Balance of Power
Pre-election
Republican Governors: 28
Democratic Governors: 22
Post-election
Republicans: 24
Democrats: 23
Uncalled Races: 3
Uncalled Races
Arizona (Hobbs vs. Lake)
Nevada (Sisolak vs. Lombardo)
Alaska (Dunleavy vs. Gara vs. Walker)
Competitive Race Detail as of 9am, 11/11/2022
According to the Associated Press
Arizona
Lake (R): 49.3%
Hobbs (D): 50.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: 82%
Called by: TBD
Nevada
Lombardo (R): 49.7%
Sisolak (D): 46.6%
None of These Candidates: 1.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: 90%
Called by: TBD
Alaska
Dunleavy (R): 52.1%
Gara (D): 23.1%
Walker (NP): 20.1%
Pierce (R): 4.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: 80%
Called by: TBD
Georgia
Kemp (R): 53.4%
Abrams (D): 45.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Kansas
Schmidt (R): 47.7%
Kelly (D): 49.2%
Pyle (I): 2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Maine
LePage (R): 42.5%
Mills (D): 55.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Michigan
Dixon (R): 43.9%
Whitmer (D): 54.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New Mexico
Ronchetti (R): 45.6%
Lujan Grisham (D): 51.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New York
Zeldin (R): 47.1%
Hochul (D): 52.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Oregon
Drazan (R): 43.5%
Kotek (D): 47.1%
Johnson (I): 8.6%
Estimated % of vote counted: 86%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Pennsylvania
Mastriano (R): 42.0%
Shapiro (D): 56.2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Wisconsin
Michels (R): 47.8%
Evers (D): 51.2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Florida
DeSantis (R): 59.4%
Crist (D): 40.0%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Oklahoma
Stitt (R): 55.5%
Hofmeister (D): 41.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Minnesota
Jensen (R): 44.6%
Walz (D): 52.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Texas
Abbott (R): 54.8%
O’Rourke (D): 43.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Maryland
Cox (R): 36.1%
Moore (D): 60.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Massachusetts
Diehl (R): 34.9%
Healey (D): 63.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New Governors
Josh Green (D-HI)
Maura Healey (D-MA)
Wes Moore (D-MD)
Jim Pillen (R-NE)
Tina Kotek (D-OR)
Josh Shapiro (D-PA)