2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 28 2022)
November 28, 2022 · 11:30 AM EST
Updated as of Nov. 28, 2022 at 11:30am ET
By Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales
Elections are humbling, and this time it’s Republicans’ turn for some soul searching.
Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the party in power was coming up short. Just 17 percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country, 68 percent of voters said the condition of the nation’s economy was either “not so good” or “poor,” and a majority of Americans disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance.
The GOP needed a net gain of a single seat for a Senate majority and a net gain of just five seats in the House. History was on their side; the president’s party has lost an average of 30 House seats in midterm elections going back a century.
And yet Republicans could barely get the ball over the goal line.
Voters were primed for change but chose the status quo instead. They didn’t punish Democrats for Biden’s job performance and were uncomfortable putting the GOP in control. Overall Democratic performance in the face of Biden’s standing and midterm history is remarkable.
While the fight for the House was closer than expected, the 2022 Senate results were not a surprise.
The final Inside Elections’ projection in the Senate was anything from a Democratic gain of one seat to a Republican gain of two seats. The final outcome — either no net change or a Democratic gain of a seat — will be within that range, pending the outcome of the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia. And the final Senate result will be within a seat or two of our earliest Senate projection.
The Senate map was relatively favorable for Democrats, considering Biden won six of the eight initial battleground states. But Democrats remained in a precarious position as the president’s approval ratings in these states remained underwater throughout most of the cycle. In the end, the 2020 Biden coalition not only held in enough key places, but some Democrats, including John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, overperformed Biden.
In the House, Democrats won a surprising number of tight races. The final Inside Elections’ projection in the House was a Republican gain of between 13 and 30 seats. That assumed that the toss-up races would break evenly or that GOP candidates would win them disproportionately as independent voters soured on Biden, prioritized economic concerns and wanted change. Instead, Democrats won a disproportionate number of toss-up races.
While our range underestimated Democrats’ strength in these toss-up races, the results in individual districts fell in line with expectations. Race ratings informed by polling (public and private, partisan and nonpartisan) were accurate and helpful. With a handful of races left to call, it looks like just five races out of 435 broke against the ratings.
In the end, this looks and feels like the inverse of 2020, as pointed out by Inside Elections alumna Leah Askarinam. In 2020, Democrats lost the expectations game, but won the House. In 2022, Democrats lost the House, but won the expectations game.
We’ll update this over the next couple of weeks, but here’s where things stand:
SENATE
Balance of Power
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 50
Uncalled Races: 1
Uncalled Senate Races
Georgia
Defeated Senators
None (yet)
New Senators
Katie Boyd Britt (R-AL)
Eric Schmitt (R-MO)
Ted Budd (R-NC)
J.D. Vance (R-OH)
Markwayne Mullin (R-OK)
John Fetterman (D-PA)
Peter Welch (D-VT)
Competitive Race Detail as of 11:30am, 11/28/2022
According to the Associated Press
Alaska (Final round)
Murkowski (R): 53.7%
Tshibaka (R): 46.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: 100%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Nevada
Cortez-Masto (D): 48.77%
Laxalt (R): 48.11%
None of These Candidates: 1.21%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Arizona
Kelly (D): 51.4%
Masters (R): 46.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Georgia
Warnock (D): 49.4%
Walker (R): 48.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: Dec. 6 runoff called by AP, DDHQ
Pennsylvania
Fetterman (D): 51.0%
Oz (R): 46.6%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New Hampshire
Hassan (D): 53.6%
Bolduc (R): 44.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Wisconsin
Johnson (R): 50.5%
Barnes (D): 49.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
North Carolina
Budd (R): 50.7%
Beasley (D): 47.1%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Ohio
Vance (R): 53.3%
Ryan (D): 46.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Washington
Murray (D): 57.3%
Smiley (R): 42.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Colorado
Bennet (D): 55.4%
O’Dea (R): 41.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Florida
Rubio (R): 57.7%
Demings (D): 41.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Utah
Lee (R): 53.1%
McMullin (I): 42.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Iowa
Grassley (R): 56.1%
Franken (D): 43.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
HOUSE
Balance of Power
Based on calls from AP, DDHQ, CNN, ABC, NBC
Republicans: 220
Democrats: 213
Uncalled Competitive Races: 2
Pre-election range: GOP +13-30
Updated most likely range based on results: GOP +6-9 (+5 needed for majority)
Uncalled Competitive House Races
Toss-up
CA-13 (Open; Harder, D)
Uncalled Solid Republican House Races to Watch
CO-03 (Boebert, R)
Called Competitive House Races
Races in italics are flips
Likely Democratic
AZ-04 (Stanton, D) - Rep. Greg Stanton (D)
CA-09 (Harder, D) - Rep. Josh Harder
CA-26 (Brownley, D) - Rep. Julia Brownley (D)
CO-07 (Open; Perlmutter, D) - Brittany Pettersen (D)
IL-06 (Newman, D/Casten, D) - Rep. Sean Casten (D)
IL-14 (Underwood, D) - Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
MD-06 (Trone, D) - Rep. David Trone (D)
NH-02 (Kuster, D) - Rep. Ann Kuster (D)
NC-01 (Open; Butterfield, D) - Don Davis (D)
NJ-03 (Kim, D) - Rep. Andy Kim (D)
NY-25 (Morelle, D) - Rep. Joseph Morelle (D)
PA-12 (Open; Doyle, D) - Summer Lee (D)
VA-10 (Wexton, D) - Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D)
Lean Democratic
AK-AL (Peltola, D) - Rep. Mary Peltola (D)
CA-49 (Levin, D) - Rep. Mike Levin (D)
IN-01 (Mrvan, D) - Rep. Frank Mrvan (D)
MI-08 (Kildee, D) - Rep. Dan Kildee (D)
OH-09 (Kaptur, D) - Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
NV-04 (Horsford, D) - Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
TX-28 (Cuellar, D) - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)
Tilt Democratic
CA-47 (Porter, D) - Katie Porter (D)
IL-13 (Open; Davis, R) - Nikki Budzinski (D)
KS-03 (Davids, D) - Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
ME-02 (Golden, D) - Rep. Jared Golden (D)
MI-03 (Open; Meijer, R) - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-07 (Slotkin, D) - Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)
NH-01 (Pappas, D) - Rep. Chris Pappas (D)
NV-01 (Titus, D) - Rep. Dina Titus (D)
NV-03 (Lee, D) - Rep. Susie Lee (D)
NY-03 (Open; Suozzi, D) - George Santos (R)
NY-04 (Open; Rice, D) - Anthony D’Esposito (R)
NY-18 (Ryan, D) - Rep. Pat Ryan (D)
OR-04 (Open; DeFazio, D) - Val Hoyle (D)
VA-07 (Spanberger, D) - Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)
Toss-up
CA-22 (Valadao, R) - Rep. David Valadao (R)
CT-05 (Hayes, D) - Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)
IL-17 (Open; Bustos, D) - Eric Sorensen (D)
MN-02 (Craig, DFL) - Rep. Angie Craig (D)
NC-13 (Open; R) - Wiley Nickel (D)
NE-02 (Bacon, R) - Rep. Don Bacon (R)
NM-02 (Herrell, R) - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-17 (S.P. Maloney, D) - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 (Open; Ryan, D) - Marc Molinaro (R)
NY-22 (Open; Katko, R) - Brandon Williams (R)
OH-01 (Chabot, R) - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-13 (Open; Ryan, D) - Emilia Sykes (D)
OR-06 (Open; New) - Andrea Salinas (D)
PA-07 (Wild, D) - Rep. Susan Wild (D)
PA-08 (Cartwright, D) - Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-17 (Open; Lamb, D) - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 (Open; Langevin, D) - Seth Magaziner (D)
TX-34 (Flores, R/Gonzalez, D) - Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)
WA-08 (Schrier, D) - Rep. Kim Schrier (D)
Tilt Republican
AZ-06 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D) - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CA-27 (Garcia, R) - Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
CO-08 (Open; New) - Yadira Caraveo (D)
IA-02 (Hinson, R) - Rep. Ashley Hinson (R)
IA-03 (Axne, D) - Zach Nunn (R)
NJ-07 (Malinowski, D) - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
OR-05 (Open; Schrader, D) - Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
VA-02 (Luria, D) - Jen Kiggans (R)
Lean Republican
AZ-01 (Schweikert, R) - Rep. David Schweikert (R)
AZ-02 (O'Halleran, D) - Eli Crane (R)
CA-45 (Steel, R) - Rep. Michelle Steel (R)
FL-13 (Open; Crist, D) - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
IA-01 (Miller-Meeks, R) - Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks (R)
MI-10 (Open; Levin, D) - John James (R)
MT-01 (Open, New) - Ryan Zinke (R)
NY-01 (Open; Zeldin, R) - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-02 (Garbarino, R) - Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R)
TX-15 (Open; V. Gonzalez, D) - Monica De La Cruz (R)
WA-03 (Open; Herrera Beutler, R) - Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
WI-03 (Open; Kind, D) - Derrick Van Orden (R)
Likely Republican
CA-03 (Open; McClintock, R) - Kevin Kiley (R)
CA-40 (Kim, R) - Rep. Young Kim (R)
FL-05 (Lawson, D) - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
FL-07 (Open; Murphy, D) - Cory Mills (R)
FL-15 (Open; Franklin, R) - Laurel Lee (R)
FL-27 (Salazar, R) - Rep. Marie Elvira Salazar (R)
GA-06 (Open; McBath, D) - Rich McCormick (R)
NY-11 (Malliotakis, R) - Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)
TN-05 (Open; Cooper, D) - Andy Ogles (R)
Defeated Incumbents
Defeated in General
Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ)
Rep. Al Lawson (D-FL)
Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA)
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM)
Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH)
Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX)
Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA)
Defeated in Primary
Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA)
Rep. Marie Newman (D-IL)
Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)
Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI)
Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI)
Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS)
Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC)
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)
Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY)
Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR)
Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC)
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)
Rep. David McKinley (R-WV)
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY)
Districts That Flipped
AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
FL-05 - Rep. John Rutherford (R)
FL-07 - Cory Mills (R)
FL-13 - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NJ-7 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D’Esposito (R)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
OR-05 - Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-34 - Vicente Gonzalez (D)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)
WA-03 - Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
WI-03 - Derrick Van Orden (R)
New House Members
AL-05 - Dale Strong (R)
AZ-02 - Eli Crane (R)
AZ-06 - Juan Ciscomani (R)
CA-03 - Kevin Kiley (R)
CA-15 - Kevin Mullin (D)
CA-37 - Sydney Kamlager (D)
CA-42 - Robert Garcia (D)
CO-07 - Brittany Pettersen (D)
CO-08 - Yadira Caraveo (D)
FL-04 - Aaron Bean (R)
FL-07 - Cory Mills (R)
FL-10 - Maxwell Frost (D)
FL-13 - Anna Paulina Luna (R)
FL-15 - Laurel Lee (R)
GA-06 - Rich McCormick (R)
GA-10 - Mike Collins (R)
HI-02 - Jill Tokuda (D)
IA-03 - Zach Nunn (R)
IL-01 - Jonathan Jackson (D)
IL-03 - Delia Ramirez (D)
IL-13 - Nikki Budzinski (D)
IL-17 - Eric Sorensen (D)
IN-02 - Rudy Yakym (R)
IN-09 - Erin Houchin (R)
KY-03 - Morgan McGarvey (D)
MD-04 - Glenn Ivey (D)
MI-03 - Hillary Scholten (D)
MI-10 - John James (R)
MI-13 - Shri Thanedar (D)
MO-04 - Mark Alford (R)
MO-07 - Eric Burlison (R)
MS-04 - Mike Ezell (R)
MT-01 - Ryan Zinke (R)
NC-01 - Don Davis (D)
NC-04 - Valerie Foushee (D)
NC-11 - Chuck Edwards (R)
NC-13 - Wiley Nickel (D)
NC-14 - Jeff Jackson (D)
NJ-07 - Tom Kean Jr. (R)
NJ-08 - Robert Menendez Jr. (D)
NM-02 - Gabe Vasquez (D)
NY-01 - Nick LaLota (R)
NY-03 - George Santos (R)
NY-04 - Anthony D'Esposito (R)
NY-10 - Dan Goldman (D)
NY-17 - Mike Lawler (R)
NY-19 - Marc Molinaro (R)
NY-22 - Brandon Williams (R)
NY-23 - Nick Langworthy (R)
OH-01 - Greg Landsman (D)
OH-07 - Max Miller (R)
OH-13 - Emilia Sykes (D)
OK-02 - Josh Brecheen (R)
OR-04 - Val Hoyle (D)
OR-05 - Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
OR-06 - Andrea Salinas (D)
PA-12 - Summer Lee (D)
PA-17 - Chris Deluzio (D)
RI-02 - Seth Magaziner (D)
SC-07 - Russell Fry (R)
TN-05 - Andy Ogles (R)
TX-01 - Nathaniel Moran (R)
TX-03 - Keith Self (R)
TX-08 - Morgan Luttrell (R)
TX-15 - Monica De La Cruz (R)
TX-30 - Jasmine Crockett (D)
TX-35 - Greg Casar (D)
TX-38 - Wesley Hunt (R)
VA-02 - Jen Kiggans (R)
VT-AL - Becca Balint (D)
WA-03 - Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
WI-03 - Derrick Van Orden (R)
WY-AL - Harriet Hageman (R)
GOVERNOR
Balance of Power
Pre-election
Republican Governors: 28
Democratic Governors: 22
Post-election
Republicans: 26
Democrats: 24
Uncalled Races
None
Competitive Race Detail as of 11:30am, 11/28/2022
According to the Associated Press
Arizona
Lake (R): 49.7%
Hobbs (D): 50.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Alaska (Final round)
Dunleavy (R): 50.3%
Gara (D): 24.2%
Walker (NP): 20.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: 100%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Nevada
Lombardo (R): 48.9%
Sisolak (D): 47.3%
None of These Candidates: 1.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: AP, DDHQ
Georgia
Kemp (R): 53.4%
Abrams (D): 45.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Kansas
Schmidt (R): 47.4%
Kelly (D): 49.4%
Pyle (I): 2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Maine
LePage (R): 42.5%
Mills (D): 55.4%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Michigan
Dixon (R): 43.9%
Whitmer (D): 54.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New Mexico
Ronchetti (R): 45.6%
Lujan Grisham (D): 51.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New York
Zeldin (R): 47.1%
Hochul (D): 52.9%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Oregon
Drazan (R): 43.6%
Kotek (D): 47.0%
Johnson (I): 8.6%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Pennsylvania
Mastriano (R): 41.9%
Shapiro (D): 56.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Wisconsin
Michels (R): 47.8%
Evers (D): 51.2%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Florida
DeSantis (R): 59.4%
Crist (D): 40.0%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Oklahoma
Stitt (R): 55.5%
Hofmeister (D): 41.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Minnesota
Jensen (R): 44.6%
Walz (D): 52.3%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Texas
Abbott (R): 54.8%
O’Rourke (D): 43.8%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Maryland
Cox (R): 32.2%
Moore (D): 64.7%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
Massachusetts
Diehl (R): 34.9%
Healey (D): 63.5%
Estimated % of vote counted: >95%
Called by: DDHQ, AP
New Governors
Katie Hobbs (D-AZ)
Josh Green (D-HI)
Maura Healey (D-MA)
Wes Moore (D-MD)
Jim Pillen (R-NE)
Joe Lombardo (R-NV)
Tina Kotek (D-OR)
Josh Shapiro (D-PA)