Alaska Senate moved from Safe to Republican Favored
October 31, 2010 · 2:25 PM EDT
Even after losing the GOP primary, Sen. Lisa Murkowski appears to have the advantage in the race. But if there are complications with her write-in candidacy, there is a narrow chance that Democrat Scott McAdams could win the seat.
McAdams wouldn’t have a shot in a two-way race, but he could prevail if Murkowski and GOP nominee Joe Miller divide the Republican vote. On Sunday, the NRSC reiterated its commitment to Miller, but he’s struggling in the polls and is running the risk of finishing third.
With Murkowski’s write-in candidacy there is enough uncertainty in the race to move Alaska from Currently Safe to Republican Favored. Keep in mind that this race could take days or weeks to sort out.