North Carolina Governor Slips From Republicans
September 20, 2024 · 4:50 PM EDT
The latest revelations about North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson will only make it more difficult for Republicans to win back the Tar Heel State’s top office this fall.
CNN’s thorough story, which recounts the virulently racist, sexist and anti-semitic comments Robinson made on adult online forums — including calling himself a “Black Nazi,” wishing he could own slaves, and disparaging Martin Luther King — is just the latest in a long list of damaging reports about the GOP gubernatorial nominee. (Robinson denies that he made the statements.) But it’s by far the most salacious, and it comes at a particularly inopportune moment, with absentee ballots hitting mailboxes this weekend. We’re shifting our rating in this race from Tilt Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Robinson is running from behind, and with just 45 days to go until Election Day, every day he isn’t making up the sizable gap between himself and state Attorney General Josh Stein is a bad day for him. Over the last month, fourteen public polls of the race have shown Stein ahead by anywhere from 5 to 14 points; the RealClearPolitics average puts Stein ahead 10 points of Robinson, 49-39 percent.
Ultimately, the race may still tighten as voters put on their partisan jerseys. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are deadlocked in the polls. But North Carolinians have a tendency to vote for Democratic governors even as they vote Republican at the top of the ticket. Democrats have won seven of the last eight gubernatorial elections in the state; most recently, Roy Cooper outperformed the top of the ticket by 3 and 5 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively. So a Harris victory likely forecloses a Robinson win entirely, but even a narrow Trump win will not be enough to push the controversial candidate across the finish line.
Adding to all this is the financial disparity between the two candidates.
The Republican Governors Association has not shied away from supporting Robinson on the airwaves over the summer, pouring in $15 million in TV advertising since the beginning of July. But Stein and his allies have still outspent the Republicans, and because candidates receive a better price on TV ads than outside groups, Democrats actually aired twice as many gross ratings points on broadcast TV as Republicans (all according to AdImpact).
Stein has $13.7 million in TV advertising time reserved for the final seven weeks of the race. Robinson had less than half as much cash on hand as Stein at the end of June (the last time the candidates were required to file fundraising reports) and will likely need to rely on continued outside support to match the Democrat on the airwaves.
While the RGA has not said whether it will continue to spend on Robinson’s behalf, the group’s chairman, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, didn’t inspire confidence when he canceled his appearance at a previously scheduled Robinson fundraiser next week. Coupled with reporting that Trump’s campaign is keeping Robinson — who the former president has repeatedly praised — at arm’s length, and Robinson may have fewer friends in his corner right when he needs them most.