Governor News & Analysis

Rating Change: Virginia Governor to Toss-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 1, 2021 · 2:00 PM EDT

Under normal conditions, Democrats win in Virginia. But these clearly aren’t normal conditions.

In the final moments of the 2021 race for governor, it’s clear that the race is coming down to the wire and Democrats no longer have a discernible advantage. We’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to…

California Governor: Education Continues to be Key Vote Indicator

by Ryan Matsumoto October 26, 2021 · 11:01 AM EDT

A month after polls closed, California has finally finished counting all the ballots for the recall election. In the end, it wasn’t close — Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom prevailed 62-38 percent. While polling pointed to a relatively competitive race for a few weeks, Newsom actually matched his margin from the…

Virginia Governor: Alarm Bells in the Commonwealth

by Jacob Rubashkin October 22, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

With just more than a week to go until Election Day in Virginia, Democrats are sweating the first big political test of the post-Trump presidency era. 

Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, has been the favorite to win back his old perch since the beginning of the year. 

He still…

Virginia Governor: Rating Change

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 29, 2021 · 5:30 PM EDT

Even though this fall's race for governor in Virginia is just one race in one state, it will determine the initial narrative of the midterm elections next year.

Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are…

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 17, 2021 · 11:48 AM EDT

The next presidential election is more than three years away, and even the midterms won’t happen for another 14 months. Yet President Joe Biden could be on the brink of losing something costly: the benefit of the doubt. 

While I’m on the record as skeptical that Afghanistan will be…

Recalling the California Recall

by Jacob Rubashkin September 15, 2021 · 1:52 PM EDT

In the end, it wasn’t even close.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California easily turned back the effort to remove him from office on Tuesday. With two-thirds of the vote counted already, 64 percent of voters opted to keep the first-term incumbent, compared to just 36 percent who wanted him…

California Governor Recall: Advantage Newsom in Final Stretch

by Ryan Matsumoto September 14, 2021 · 9:45 AM EDT

It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt.

The FiveThirtyEight polling average

California Governor Recall: Media Spending Reflects GOP Challenge

by Christopher Sebastian September 13, 2021 · 1:03 PM EDT

Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG.

The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans.

While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to show up to the polls and vote…

California Governor Recall: Down to the Wire

by Ryan Matsumoto August 27, 2021 · 2:26 PM EDT

Voters across California are already beginning to vote in what may be the most important election of the year. The attempted recall of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is poised to be a blockbuster event that may have ramifications well beyond the Golden State.

How the Recall Works
The Sept.…

New York Governor: Still Solid Democratic

by Jacob Rubashkin August 16, 2021 · 9:06 AM EDT

Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s surprise resignation is already sending shockwaves through the New York political world, from Albany to New York City.

But one thing the three-term incumbent’s exit doesn’t change is our outlook on the state’s 2022 gubernatorial contest, which remains Solid Democratic.

If anything, Cuomo’s decision to step…