House News & Analysis

West Virginia 2: Don’t Count Out the Republican From Maryland

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 28, 2014 · 4:59 PM EDT

When the dust settled in the Republican primary in West Virginia’s 2nd District, Alex Mooney stood alone with the nomination. Democrats rejoiced because Mooney is a former state senator from Maryland and former chairman of the Maryland Republican Party. But Mooney winning the general election isn’t as outrageous as…

House Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 28, 2014 · 4:55 PM EDT

Georgia’s 1st District. State Sen. Buddy Carter (36 percent) and Dr. Bob Johnson (23 percent) finished first and second in the May 20 primary and will face off in a July 22 runoff. John McCallum was third with 20 percent, ahead of Jeff Chapman (13 percent) and Darwin Carter…

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 23, 2014 · 9:30 AM EDT

Longtime readers of my column know I have often been skeptical about endorsements in highly visible contests, whether for the White House or the Senate. But what about an endorsement in a U.S. House race or a House primary? And could an endorsement actually hurt the candidate endorsed?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

by Stuart Rothenberg May 22, 2014 · 9:38 AM EDT

Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.

Not every hopeful passes through our offices, of course, and many candidates have won elections…

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 16, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

One party is using abortion as wedge issue in races all across the country — and it’s not the Republicans.

Abortion rights is a critical part of Democrats’ pitch to women in swing districts and states in general elections. But now some Democratic candidates from Maine to Hawaii…

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

by Stuart Rothenberg May 15, 2014 · 10:35 AM EDT

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

The change results from three…

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 14, 2014 · 9:53 AM EDT

University of Illinois professor George Gollin forced one of Democrats’ top recruits to spend a few hundred thousand dollars to win the primary. Now Gollin is popping up in other House races hundreds of miles away and potentially causing problems for more top recruits.

Earlier this year, Gollin…

Democrats Won’t Have a Candidate in Competitive Florida District, Race moves to Safe

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 13, 2014 · 1:52 PM EDT

Apparently Democrats are determined to challenge the old political axiom, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.” in Florida’s 13th District.

Just a couple weeks ago, Democratic strategists tried to pull off some ballot jiu jitsu by keeping the Democratic field clear until after the filing deadline so that…

Michigan: Midwest Melee

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Michigan has a little bit of everything this cycle- - a competitive gubernatorial race, an open seat race for the U.S. Senate, Republican congressional primaries between insiders and outsiders, crowded Democratic primaries in safe seats and a couple of Republican incumbents who are vulnerable in the general election.

Maine 2: Out in the Open

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republican Members of Congress are an endangered species in the Northeast, but Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud’s exit from Maine’s 2nd District gives Republicans an opportunity to win back the seat for the first time in 20 years.

For an open seat, the fields are relatively clear with two…