House News & Analysis

Oklahoma 2: Living in the Past?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

A Democratic incumbent is retiring in a district where President Obama will likely receive one-third of the vote in November, but Democratic strategists nonetheless believe they can hold the seat.

Rep. Dan Boren (D) is arguably the most conservative Democrat in Congress and has had no trouble winning…

Kentucky House: Republicans Battle to Replace Davis

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:57 AM EDT

Rep. Geoff Davis caught many of his fellow Republicans off-guard when he decided not to seek reelection to a fifth term, but Davis leaves behind one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky. Since his 4th District seat isn’t vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, the May 22 winner-take-all primary…

New Mexico 1: Democratic (Not-So) Civil War

by Jessica Taylor April 20, 2012 · 11:56 AM EDT

Once upon a time, the Albuquerque desert was home to one of the nation’s top political fights. This year, the heat’s being turned up in the 1st District Democratic primary, but it will likely fade after the June 5 primary as this once-battleground seat drops off the list of…

Arkansas House: Razorback Red

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:55 AM EDT

With control of the governorship and the Legislature, Democrats were in prime position to take back at least a couple of seats they lost in 2010 in Arkansas.

But local Democratic cartographers didn’t see eye to eye with Democratic strategists in D.C. and drew a map that could…

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

Though it probably won’t start for a few more days, the “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members of Congress find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight,…

Arizona 8 Special: Table Set for Giffords’ Seat

by Jessica Taylor April 18, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

The nominees are in place for the highly competitive Arizona special election to replace former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), as 2010 GOP nominee Jesse Kelly cruised to an expected primary win on Tuesday. 

Kelly took 36 percent of the vote. His next closest competitor was retired Air Force…

The Vacant Center Aisle Caucus?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 11, 2012 · 10:05 AM EDT

Republican strategists certainly weren’t pleased with Illinois Rep. Timothy Johnson’s post-primary retirement decision, but why was a Democratic Member of Congress from almost 1,000 miles away so upset?

“Shedding a tear for my Center Aisle Caucus co-chair,” Rep. Christopher Murphy (D-Conn.) tweeted Wednesday night after the Johnson news…

Parties Seek Answers to Anti-Incumbent PAC’s Motives

by Jessica Taylor April 9, 2012 · 3:20 PM EDT

The Campaign for Primary Accountability (CPA), a super PAC that claims no partisan allegiance and has targeted long-time incumbents randomly, has political strategists on both sides of the aisle perplexed.

Can the CPA defeat incumbent members of Congress by swooping into contests at the last minute? Is it…

House Battleground Comes Into Focus

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

While President Obama’s numbers have strengthened in some polls, the public’s mood has brightened a bit, and Democratic prospects in the Senate certainly have improved, Democrats still face a difficult task in their effort to net 25 seats and take back the House of Representatives.

Redistricting has been…

2012 House Overview (April 6, 2012) Alabama - Florida

April 6, 2012 · 2:59 PM EDT

Alabama (6R, 1D)
The state’s new Congressional map makes the districts of freshman Martha Roby (R) and veteran Mike Rogers (R) more Republican, so Democrats aren’t likely to threaten here in 2012. GOP Reps. Joe Bonner and Spencer Bachus survived primary challenges with relative ease.