House News & Analysis

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

Stuart Rothenberg May 23, 2014 · 9:30 AM EDT

Longtime readers of my column know I have often been skeptical about endorsements in highly visible contests, whether for the White House or the Senate. But what about an endorsement in a U.S. House race or a House primary? And could an endorsement actually hurt the candidate endorsed?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Stuart Rothenberg May 22, 2014 · 9:38 AM EDT

Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.

Not every hopeful passes through our offices, of course, and many candidates have won elections…

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

Nathan L. Gonzales May 16, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

One party is using abortion as wedge issue in races all across the country — and it’s not the Republicans.

Abortion rights is a critical part of Democrats’ pitch to women in swing districts and states in general elections. But now some Democratic candidates from Maine to Hawaii…

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

Stuart Rothenberg May 15, 2014 · 10:35 AM EDT

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

The change results from three…

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

Nathan L. Gonzales May 14, 2014 · 9:53 AM EDT

University of Illinois professor George Gollin forced one of Democrats’ top recruits to spend a few hundred thousand dollars to win the primary. Now Gollin is popping up in other House races hundreds of miles away and potentially causing problems for more top recruits.

Earlier this year, Gollin…

Democrats Won’t Have a Candidate in Competitive Florida District, Race moves to Safe

Nathan L. Gonzales May 13, 2014 · 1:52 PM EDT

Apparently Democrats are determined to challenge the old political axiom, “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.” in Florida’s 13th District.

Just a couple weeks ago, Democratic strategists tried to pull off some ballot jiu jitsu by keeping the Democratic field clear until after the filing deadline so that…

Michigan: Midwest Melee

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Michigan has a little bit of everything this cycle- - a competitive gubernatorial race, an open seat race for the U.S. Senate, Republican congressional primaries between insiders and outsiders, crowded Democratic primaries in safe seats and a couple of Republican incumbents who are vulnerable in the general election.

Maine 2: Out in the Open

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republican Members of Congress are an endangered species in the Northeast, but Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud’s exit from Maine’s 2nd District gives Republicans an opportunity to win back the seat for the first time in 20 years.

For an open seat, the fields are relatively clear with two…

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Florida’s 19th District. Businessman Curt Clawson won the special GOP primary and is the prohibitive favorite in the June special general election. The seat was open after GOP Rep. Trey Radel’s resignation.

Georgia Governor. Gov. Nathan Deal’s mishandling of the state’s winter storm response threw a bit of…

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 9:49 AM EDT

The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.

Observers see what they want to see in the results,…