House News & Analysis

A National Election or a Localized One?

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Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2014 · 4:30 PM EDT

Our House and Senate ratings continue to reflect state-level and district-level surveys, as well as the fundamentals of each contest. But as we all know, midterm elections sometimes become referenda on the sitting president. When that happens, if the electorate’s mood is angry and dissatisfied with the president’s performance,…

Putting House Expectations Into Context

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 12, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

“Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal,” according to a Politico piece, “Halfway House: GOP falling short in midterms,” published earlier this month.

“From a historic perspective, a five- or six-seat gain would be…

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

Stuart Rothenberg September 11, 2014 · 1:02 PM EDT

A few weeks ago, I noticed a piece in Time headlined “The Best 6 Political Campaign Ads of the Summer (So Far).”

I’ve written columns about “the best” this or “the worst” that, so I’m certainly not opposed to columns that list personal assessments or even personal…

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

Stuart Rothenberg September 9, 2014 · 9:45 AM EDT

Politics is mostly about both parties regurgitating well-established positions (on taxes, the environment, abortion and spending, for example) to appeal to base voters and demonize their opponents. But every so often, candidates from one party try a dramatically new message.

That’s what is happening now in a number…

House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

Nathan L. Gonzales September 5, 2014 · 10:51 AM EDT

Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider unveiled his first television ad Tuesday in his competitive race for re-election in Illinois’ 10th District. The 30-second spot tries to rally Democratic voters by attacking the tea party — but the ad also might have a faulty disclaimer that runs afoul of campaign…

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Stuart Rothenberg August 28, 2014 · 2:47 PM EDT

Three and a half months ago, I wrote about the state of the fight between the Republican establishment’s pragmatic conservative candidates and tea party/libertarian/anti-establishment conservatives.

I concluded the results were mixed and it was too early to call a winner, though I also noted, “it’s already clear…

Wave or No Wave, House Landscape Favors Republicans

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 15, 2014 · 3:03 PM EDT

While political reporters, analysts and party strategists argue over whether there is or is not a wave approaching, one thing is clear: it’s an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.

Candidates, party committees, and outside groups are polling dozens of House races as they formalize their fall ad…

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Might Be Why Americans Hate Congress

Stuart Rothenberg August 13, 2014 · 10:38 AM EDT

The media’s narrative about Congress is clear: It is unproductive, members care only about getting re-elected and they have failed to do their jobs.

So it should come as no surprise that Americans believe Congress has been unproductive, that members don’t care about doing the right thing, but…

Inside House Democrats’ Expanding Ground Game

Nathan L. Gonzales August 8, 2014 · 10:13 AM EDT

In the face of a challenging midterm environment, Democrats are relying on money and an expanding get-out-the-vote effort to avoid losing any more ground in the House. But what does that souped-up ground game look like?

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s fundraising advantage over the National Republican Congressional…

New Poll Numbers Reinforce Bush-Obama Comparisons

Stuart Rothenberg August 7, 2014 · 9:31 AM EDT

My last column, which argued President Barack Obama’s situation going into his second midterm closely resembled President George W. Bush’s standing going into his second midterm, is reinforced in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

When I filed the column on Monday, I used the…