Senate News & Analysis

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

by Stuart Rothenberg November 7, 2014 · 12:08 PM EST

Yes, that was a wave. A big one. In many respects, it was a wave that was larger and more damaging to Democrats than in 2010.

Republicans now have more House seats, more Senate seats and more governorships than they did after the humongous GOP wave of 2010.…

Ratings Change: Louisiana Senate Moves from Tilt Republican To Lean Republican

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2014 · 3:20 PM EST

There was a chance that the entire country would be spending the month of November focused on Louisiana as the Senate majority hinged on the fate of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a December runoff. That scenario has evaporated, but is the race still worth watching?

Landrieu finished…

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2014 · 12:00 PM EST

A week before the election, Stu waded into the discussion about what constitutes an electoral wave. One of his main points: “I know it when I see it.” Well, we saw it on Tuesday.

While Republicans gained more House and Senate seats than the most likely…

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations (Stu’s Sept. 8 Outlook)

by Stuart Rothenberg November 5, 2014 · 11:23 AM EST

This column first appeared in Roll Call on Sept. 8, 2014.

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by…

GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2014 · 3:30 PM EST

Here is an emerging surprise of the midterm elections: Republican candidates are more popular than Democratic candidates in top Senate contests.

It’s no secret the path to victory for Democrats in the Senate was to demonize GOP candidates in the eyes of voters who are dissatisfied with President…

Republicans (Still) Poised to Pick Up 6 to 8 Senate Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2014 · 12:00 PM EST

Almost two months ago, on September 8th, I wrote that while the Rothenberg Political Report ratings projected Republican Senate gains in the five to eight seat range, I was “expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.”

“But I…

Election Eve Update: GOP Prospects Continue to Improve in the Senate

November 3, 2014 · 12:27 PM EST

The playing field of competitive Senate races hasn’t changed, but Republican chances to win those seats has improved in the last couple of days.

Since our latest ratings changes on Wednesday, GOP prospects have improved in Colorado and Iowa, making the path to a net gain of at…

Ratings Change in Kentucky Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 2:50 PM EDT

One of the most watched Senate races of 2014 is over. Take it off your list of states that could fall either way on Tuesday.

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has opened up a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, secretary of state of the Bluegrass State,…

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 10:52 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S.…

Senate Outlook: Advantage to Republicans

by Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Five Senate seats look increasingly like they will be keys to what kind of election the two parties will have this year.

The GOP looks poised to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If they do that and hold all…