Senate News & Analysis

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky - New Mexico

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June 6, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%). Senate Minority Leader McConnell beat primary challenger Matt Bevin surprisingly easily, and he will now turn his guns on Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who gives Democrats their best chance of…

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina - Wyoming

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June 6, 2014 · 3:57 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA -- Kay Hagan (D), elected 2008 (53%). Given the GOP’s recent victories in the state, Hagan certainly knew that she would have a serious challenge. State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican nomination without a runoff, allowing him to avoid further attacks and focus all his…

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2014 · 9:50 AM EDT

The office of lieutenant governor is so important that five states don’t even have one, yet that hasn’t stopped the national political media from treating some contests for the office as crucial indicators of something.

In the recent primary runoff in Texas, anti-establishment conservative state Sen. Dan Patrick…

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

Stuart Rothenberg June 3, 2014 · 9:42 AM EDT

CLEVELAND, Miss. — The rain pounded the Mississippi Delta for the better part of three days late last week, but the nasty weather and a hard-fought primary contest didn’t stop Sen. Thad Cochran from attending the Delta Council’s annual event on May 30 on the Delta State University campus.…

Oregon Senate: National Republicans Get Their Nominee for Potential Race

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 28, 2014 · 5:00 PM EDT

Republican strategists believe they have expanded the field of competitive Senate races to include Oregon. But only time will tell whether the Beaver State is really in play and whether Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is indeed vulnerable.

There really was a lot riding on the May 20 GOP…

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham is Not Safe, Yet

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 28, 2014 · 4:57 PM EDT

Before the cycle began, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham was probably near the top of any list of senators who might get a serious challenge from the Right. And a couple weeks ago, the Charleston County Republican Party opted to censure Graham for not being Republican enough.

But…

Senate Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska

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May 28, 2014 · 4:56 PM EDT

Arkansas Senate. The GOP nomination was never in doubt considering Rep. Tom Cotton is a rare Republican candidate who has brought together the establishment and anti-establishment wings of his party. But Democrats are increasingly bullish on Sen. Mark Pryor’s chances of winning re-election. Based on internal Democratic polling and…

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Stuart Rothenberg May 22, 2014 · 9:38 AM EDT

Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.

Not every hopeful passes through our offices, of course, and many candidates have won elections…

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

Stuart Rothenberg May 19, 2014 · 9:02 AM EDT

I am not at all certain who or what Ben Sasse is. I interviewed him in February, and heard him speak to a large, sympathetic group not long after that. And, of course, I’ve seen him interviewed by others. But I still don’t have a handle on what kind…

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

Stuart Rothenberg May 15, 2014 · 10:35 AM EDT

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

The change results from three…