Senate Ratings

October 12, 2009 · 10:25 AM EDT

With recent polls continuing to show Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) trailing potential GOP challengers in next year’s midterm election, Reid’s hold on his Nevada Senate seat looks increasingly questionable. We are moving the seat from Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.

We are also moving two other Democratic-held Senate seats, Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) and Colorado (Michael Bennet) from Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party to Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party, based on their standings in polling and the improved quality of recent Republicans who have entered those contests.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 1 D)
  • DE Open (Kaufman, D)
Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)
  • KY Open (Bunning, R)
  • MO Open (Bond, R)
  • NH Open (Gregg, R)
  • OH Open (Voinovich, R)
  • IL Open (Burris, D)
  • Dodd (D-CT)
  • Reid (D-NV) *
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 3 D)
  • Burr (R-NC)
  • Vitter (R-LA)
  • Bennet (D-CO)
  • Lincoln (D-AR) *
  • Specter (D-PA) *
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
  • FL Open (LeMieux, R)

Currently Safe (11 R, 11 D)

  • Bennett (R-UT)
  • Coburn (R-OK)
  • Crapo (R-ID)
  • DeMint (R-SC)
  • Grassley (R-IA)
  • Isakson (R-GA)
  • McCain (R-AZ)
  • Murkowski (R-AK)
  • Shelby (R-AL)
  • Thune (R-SD)
  • KS Open (Brownback, R)
  • Bayh (D-IN)
  • Boxer (D-CA)
  • Dorgan (D-ND)
  • Feingold (D-WI)
  • Gillibrand (D-NY)
  • Inouye (D-HI)
  • Leahy (D-VT)
  • Mikulski (D-MD)
  • Murray (D-WA)
  • Schumer (D-NY)
  • Wyden (D-OR)