Senate Ratings

January 12, 2010 · 7:00 AM EST

New polling confirms that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is mired near 40% in general election ballot tests against all potential opponents, even those voters know nothing about. It will be extremely difficult for him to pull out a win, as Sens. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and John Sununu (R-NH), and more recently New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), found out.

Reid’s most recent controversial comments don’t help because they keep the story focused on him, rather than on his opponents. Given Reid’s current standing with voters, he should be viewed as a slight underdog for reelection, which is why we are moving this race from Toss-up to Lean Takeover for the GOP.

In Massachusetts, it appears that Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) holds a statistically significant lead over state Sen. Scott Brown (R) with just days to go before the January 19 election. The one poll showing Brown up by one point appears to be an outlier. We’re moving the race from Safe to Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party because of the small chance that Brown could pull up a huge upset in a low turnout election. But we continue to believe that Coakley will win, though her margin could be so narrow as to cause more jitters on the Democratic side.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 3 D)
  • Reid (D-NV) *
  • ND Open (Dorgan, D)
  • DE Open (Kaufman, D)
Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)
  • KY Open (Bunning, R)
  • MO Open (Bond, R)
  • NH Open (Gregg, R)
  • OH Open (Voinovich, R)
  • IL Open (Burris, D)
  • Bennet (D-CO)
  • Lincoln (D-AR)
  • Specter (D-PA)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)
  • Burr (R-NC)
  • Vitter (R-LA)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)
  • Grassley (R-IA)
  • FL Open (LeMieux, R)
  • CT Open (Dodd, D)
  • MA Open (Kirk, D) *

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

  • Bennett (R-UT)
  • Coburn (R-OK)
  • Crapo (R-ID)
  • DeMint (R-SC)
  • Isakson (R-GA)
  • McCain (R-AZ)
  • Murkowski (R-AK)
  • Shelby (R-AL)
  • Thune (R-SD)
  • KS Open (Brownback, R)
  • Bayh (D-IN)
  • Boxer (D-CA)
  • Feingold (D-WI)
  • Gillibrand (D-NY)
  • Inouye (D-HI)
  • Leahy (D-VT)
  • Mikulski (D-MD)
  • Murray (D-WA)
  • Schumer (D-NY)
  • Wyden (D-OR)