Archive

Drawing the Wrong Meaning About a House Race

by Stuart Rothenberg November 21, 2012 · 9:32 AM EST

Sometimes it’s not about the larger lessons for the national party or the demographics. Sometimes the better candidate just wins.

I’ll admit that I get a little defensive about the coverage of House races.

Only a handful of us pay a lot of attention to them (you know who you are — and thank…

Perfect Storm for Democratic Pickups

by Stuart Rothenberg November 16, 2012 · 10:50 AM EST

While most members of the national media have focused on President Barack Obama’s narrow popular vote/substantial electoral vote victory, the far more stunning results occurred in the Senate.

Though defending 23 seats to the GOP’s 10, Democrats added two more seats last week (counting Maine…

What Really Happened in the House

by Stuart Rothenberg November 14, 2012 · 12:00 PM EST

After an election, the winners often gloat and the losers look for excuses and point their fingers.

Almost inevitably, both sides overreact. Some losers see the sky falling, while too many winners (and their press people) draw exaggerated conclusions about their brilliance and about the voters’…

Mixed Message: Divided Nation Is Still Divided

by Stuart Rothenberg November 9, 2012 · 10:14 AM EST

Tuesday’s results were not unexpected, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t send shock waves through the political establishment.

The president was re-elected at the same time Democrats retained the Senate and Republicans continued to hold the House, but the elections seem to raise more…

House Results: The GOP Bends But Doesn’t Break

by Jessica Taylor November 7, 2012 · 3:15 PM EST

While Republicans are a bit shell-shocked about the presidential and Senate results, House Republicans have reason for smugness. They kept control of their chamber after their sweeping 2010 gains and will likely keep their losses only in the single digits.

Sill, the outcome is something of a…

Jumping to Conclusions on the 2012 Elections

by Stuart Rothenberg November 6, 2012 · 10:00 AM EST

If there is one thing that you can probably bet on, it is that the winners and losers in today’s balloting will draw the wrong conclusions from the outcome.

The winner of the presidential election — of 270 votes in the Electoral College — will almost certainly see his victory as confirmation…

Settle In: Election Night Viewers’ Guide

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2012 · 8:00 AM EST

With eight presidential swing states, a dozen competitive Senate seats and more than 60 House seats in play, it’s impossible to follow them all as polls close and returns trickle in tonight. Here is a guide for when and where to focus your attention to accurately measure how things are going for…

One-Page Election Night Guide

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2012 · 4:55 PM EDT

In order to ease your Election Night experience, we've put together a 1-page, downloadable Election Night Guide with our House, Senate, and Gubernatorial ratings. Just click here for the document. Keep in mind, these are our ratings as of Nov. 2, and check back over the weekend and into Tuesday…

Democrats Likely to Hold Senate, Republican Gains in Doubt (Senate Overview, November 2, 2012)

November 2, 2012 · 3:30 PM EDT

While Republicans are a virtual lock to hold the House, GOP chances of taking back the Senate remain decidedly long.

Republicans now look to have gained a narrow advantage in two states - Nevada and North Dakota - which have been toss-ups for much of the cycle, and Arizona looks more likely…

Democrats Likely to Gain House Seats, but GOP Pick-ups Possible (House Overview, November 2, 2012)

November 2, 2012 · 3:29 PM EDT

As we wrote last week, the fight for the House looks very much over, but a closer examination of our ratings explains why.

Republicans start with 205 safe seats, putting them just 13 away from the 218 they need for a majority. Democrats, on the other hand, start with 162 safe seats. In order…