For years now, I’ve been running lists of vulnerable open seats and incumbents, so there is no reason to wait until all states have completed redistricting. Here are the most vulnerable incumbents who are currently planning on seeking re-election. One caveat: I have excluded incumbents running…
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) leads in money and leads in the polls but the Senate race in Michigan isn’t over yet. The state’s junior senator has been on the other side of the equation. A dozen years ago, GOP Sen. Spencer Abraham was in a similar position in the off-year, but Stabenow defeated him…
A few weeks ago, I wrote a column in Roll Call about President Barack Obama’s Electoral College outlook, noting that “generic” projections weren’t particularly helpful because, to a considerable extent, presidential elections are about the candidates.
My initial estimate of a contest pitting…
Democrats were demolished in Wisconsin in 2010, but defeating freshman Cong. Sean Duffy (R) is a key part of their comeback.
Last year, Republicans took over the governorship, knocked off Sen. Russ Feingold (D), took over two congressional seats, and won majorities in both chambers of the state…
There aren’t many districts where Barack Obama got over 60% and yet Republicans believe they’ve got a legitimate shot at winning. But Cong. Judy Biggert (R) gives her party’s strategists hope that she can hold Illinois’ re-drawn 11th District.
Democrats made the most of their opportunity to…
It appears that Republicans have pulled yet another Democratic seat onto the Senate playing field. After taking nine months to decide, former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) announced she would run for the open seat in Hawaii being vacated by retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka (D).
Her candidacy means Democrats…
Sen. Joe Manchin (D) remains the most popular politician in West Virginia. He’s successfully defined himself apart from President Obama and the national Democratic Party, and a majority of Republicans (not just all voters) give him a positive job rating.
Obama will lose West Virginia by a wide…
For former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the GOP presidential campaign is looking like a simple matter of survival.
With a substantial chunk of the Republican Party appearing unenthusiastic about embracing him, Romney now finds himself in the position of having to “hang around” in the GOP…
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