Archive

Handicapping Versus Reporting, Analyzing the Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg June 21, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

As I’ve watched the first few months of the 2008 presidential race, I’ve been struck by how differently the race can be watched and evaluated.

Most print and television political reporters, along with their editors, are approaching the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential…

2008 Senate Ratings

June 20, 2007 · 4:08 PM EDT

Here are our latest Senate ratings, including the developments in Wyoming. At this point in the cycle, we only use three broad categories. Later, we will move to our more specific categories such as Clear Advantage, Narrow Advantage, Toss-Up, etc.



VULNERABLE (3 R, 0 D)
  • Coleman (R-MN)

For Some Democrats, the Political Picture Doesn’t Look So Rosy

by Stuart Rothenberg June 18, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. — While Democratic politicians and activists around the country are upbeat about the party’s near-term political prospects, including the 2008 presidential and Congressional elections, Democrats in Michigan are increasingly concerned about their standing in the state. Some…

2007-08 Gubernatorial Ratings

June 15, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. We have moved to our pre-election categories. Democrats currently hold 28 governorships compared to 22 for the Republicans. 2007 races are in italics.



LEAN TAKEOVER (1 R, 1 D)
  • Open; Blanco (D)
  • Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Iowa Straw Poll: Over Long Before It Really Began

by Stuart Rothenberg June 14, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Less than a month ago in this space, I observed that the fast-approaching Iowa straw poll in Ames on Aug. 11 could offer some interesting insights into the Republican race for president. To quote Emily Litela (Gilda Radner) of “Saturday Night Live” fame, “Never mind.”

The recent announcement by…

Illinois 8: Greenberg to Challenge Bean

June 13, 2007 · 12:01 AM EDT

Wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg (R) is set to announce his candidacy against Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois’s 8th District.

GOP insiders believe the 8th District is one of their top ten opportunities in the country, particularly since Bean won reelection last year with 51% in the Democratic…

Obama’s Message Crosses the Atlantic

by Stuart Rothenberg June 12, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

NAIROBI, Kenya — Across the stream of raw sewage and past the piles of trash, Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) message of hope resonates thousands of miles away. In Nairobi’s poorest neighborhoods, the prospect of a President Obama has captured the imagination of the next generation of Kenyans.

The…

Democratic Leaders on Capitol Hill Are Still Playing Iraq Just Right

by Stuart Rothenberg June 11, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Now that the dust has settled on the Congressional vote on the supplemental appropriations bill and on the ruckus that anti-war opponents of the bill kicked up, it’s time to assess the political implications.

First, Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill played the issue like a Stradivarius. They…

2008 House Ratings

June 8, 2007 · 3:02 PM EDT

Here are our latest House ratings. Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. Democrats currently hold a 233-202 majority in the House.

*UPDATED 8/31 to reflect likely open seat in Virginia 11. Add to list as Toss-Up.
*UPDATED 8/23 to reflect…

Fred, Tommy or Bobby: Which Thom(p)son Will History Remember?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 7, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

And Fred makes two. Two Republicans named Thompson running for their party’s 2008 presidential nomination, that is.

Bobby Thomson, the third Thom(p)son mentioned in the title of this column, now lives in New Jersey and is 83 years old. He was born Oct. 25, 1923, making him less than a month…