House News & Analysis

Race Fundamentals Are Telling for Vulnerables

by Stuart Rothenberg October 6, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Democrats are pushing back these days with polls and political scenarios, trying to change the national narrative and force handicappers onto the defensive.

There is a Democratic mini-surge going on, we are told, as some campaigns produce poll numbers showing they have been prematurely written off as, well,…

New York 23: Hoffman Out, Race Moves to Toss-Up

October 5, 2010 · 2:26 PM EDT

Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman suspended his campaign in New York’s 23rd District, dramatically improving the Republicans’ chances of winning back a seat they lost less than a year ago.

Democrat Bill Owens won the GOP open seat in a November 2009 special election after the GOP splintered…

Scenario #3: A GOP Tsunami Crashes Over Congress

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:52 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…

Scenario #2: Democrats Lose House, Cling to Senate

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:51 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…

Scenario #1: Base Turns Out Late, Saves Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 5, 2010 · 9:50 AM EDT

One month before Election Day and this much is clear: Democrats will take a pounding when frustrated (and in some cases unemployed) voters go to the polls. Public opinion polls show a majority of Americans are unhappy with the present course of the country and are impatient for a…

2010 House Overview (October 1, 2010)

October 1, 2010 · 4:33 PM EDT

Talk of increased Democratic enthusiasm and an aggressive effort by national Democratic strategists to emphasize districts where Democrats are running well shouldn’t obscure the big picture: Republicans are still headed for large – possibly huge – gains, and they are more likely than not to win a majority of…

Parties’ Opposition Research Efforts Fuel Late Ads

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 30, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

As voters are being bombarded with political attack ads in the lead-up to November, few likely realize that what appears as a fine-print citation in a 30-second television commercial is the result of months of opposition research and an orchestrated communication effort by parties and candidates.

In a…

Final Stretch Not as Important as You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.

Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but…

2010 House Overview (September 24, 2010)

September 24, 2010 · 5:18 PM EDT

From the White House to the DCCC, Democratic strategists argue that enthusiasm among the Democratic base will help save a number of seats now considered to be vulnerable. In response to the barrage of Republican polls showing GOP candidates in strong position, Democrats have released a select number of…

State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

by Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory…