A year ago, Republican Martha McSally left her House seat behind only to lose a high-profile Senate election. Now, McSally is an appointed U.S. Senator in the state’s other seat and gearing up for another high-profile campaign with the majority potentially at stake.
Arizona is the only state in the…
For Republicans, there’s more at stake in 2020 than the Senate majority.
Not only is the GOP defending more seats next year, but this class includes a mix of leadership, legislative veterans, and rising stars, who are all in races to strengthen their connection to their states.
The terrain isn’t…
Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). As a Democrat in a state where Hillary Clinton received less than 35 percent, Jones is the most vulnerable senator in the country. But there hasn’t been a flood of interested GOP candidates.
Rep. Bradley Byrne, who represents Mobile and the southwest…
Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Trump won Kentucky by nearly 20 points in 2016, Republicans have a 57-42 percent Baseline advantage, and Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 1992. But with the polarizing majority leader up…
North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The nature of North Carolina as an emerging toss-up should breed a competitive contest. Republicans have a narrow 50-49 percent Baseline advantage. In 2016, President Trump won by 4 points and GOP Sen. Richard Burr won by 6 points, but Democrat Roy…
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief last week when Rep. Ruben Gallego decided not to run for the Senate, likely avoiding a primary in the run-up to a competitive general election in Arizona. That’s because “bitter,” “bloody,” and “bruising” seem to be the most commonly used adjectives to describe primaries…
There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory.
Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to…
Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Lujan plans to run for the Senate in New Mexico and is set to officially announce his candidacy on Monday, according to two sources familiar with the congressman’s decision. The seat is open after Democratic Sen. Tom Udall announced he would not seek re-election in 2020.
…Twelve Republicans parted with President Donald Trump on his national emergency funding. But given the electoral politics of the Senate, it would be unwise to expect much crossparty voting in the future.
The partisan performance of a state is not the only consideration that Senators take into account when…
Open seats are usually better takeover opportunities, but Republicans still have plenty of work to do in New Mexico to prove they’ve got a real chance of flipping the seat. Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico announced on Monday that he would not seek re-election, but it’s been…
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